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Browns vs Saints Prediction & NFL Odds For Week 11

ByUSA Wager

The Saints are the slight favorite in their week 11 matchup against the Browns, which kicks off at 1:00 ET on Sunday, November 17th at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. The Saints’ money line odds are -116, and the Browns’ odds are -104. FOX is covering this non-conference game, with the Saints at -1 on the point spread, and the over/under line is set at 44 points.

Prediction at a Glance for Saints vs Browns

  • We have the Saints winning this one by a score of 26 to 23
  • Not only do we have the Saints winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at -1
  • Look for this game to go over the line of 44 points

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

  • Spread: Browns +1 | Saints -1
  • Total: 44
  • MoneyLine: Browns -104 | Saints -116

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Browns vs. Saints Prediction: MoneyLine

Heading into week 11, the Browns rank 31st in our offensive power rankings. They are 26th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 16.4, and 31st in yards per game with 274.4. Despite ranking 3rd in passing attempts per game (37.7), they are 28th in passing yards, averaging 183.4 per game. On the ground, they are 23rd in rushing attempts and 28th in rushing yards, with 91 per game. Cleveland has struggled on 3rd down, converting just 28.7% of the time, which ranks 29th in the league. However, they lead the NFL in red zone conversion percentage, despite being 19th in red zone attempts.

Cedric Tillman has been the Browns’ leading receiver in each of the last three games, with 6 catches for 75 yards and a touchdown in week 9. Before that, he had 7 receptions for 99 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 8, and 8 catches for 81 yards in week 7. Nick Chubb rushed for 39 yards on 15 carries in week 9, and Jameis Winston threw for 235 yards, with 1 touchdown and 3 interceptions, while being sacked 6 times.

Heading into week 11, the Saints are 19th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 22.7 points per game, which ranks 13th in the NFL. They are 16th in passing yards per game (212.4) and 15th in passing attempts. On the ground, they rank 13th in rushing yards per game (122.4) and 11th in attempts. New Orleans is 16th in the league in 3rd-down conversion rate and 20th in red zone efficiency, despite ranking 9th in red zone attempts.

Derek Carr posted a passer rating of 126 in week 10, throwing for 269 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Falcons. Alvin Kamara rushed for 55 yards on 17 carries, while Marquez Valdes-Scantling had 3 catches for 109 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Saints scored all 20 of their points in the 2nd quarter in week 10.

  • Free MoneyLine Prediction Saints -116 (Bet Now)

Browns vs. Saints Prediction: Total

The Browns’ defense allowed the Chargers to convert on 35.7% of their third downs in their most recent game, but still gave up 27 points in a 27-10 loss. They did have a good amount of success getting to the quarterback, finishing with six sacks. Despite this, the Chargers still managed to put up 342 yards of total offense against them.

Cleveland gave up 246 yards through the air on just 18 completions, and they also allowed two passing touchdowns. On the ground, the Browns gave up 96 yards on 23 attempts.

Despite allowing 468 offensive yards, the Saints’ defense came up with three sacks and an interception in their 20-17 win over the Falcons. The Saints struggled against the run, giving up 181 yards on 32 attempts, but they managed to limit Atlanta to 35.7% on third down conversions. New Orleans defended the pass well, allowing 287 passing yards and preventing the Falcons from scoring through the air.

  • Free Total Prediction OVER 44 (Bet Now)

Browns vs. Saints Prediction: Spread

Heading into week 11, the Browns sit 19th in our NFL power rankings and have just a 2.8% chance of making the playoffs. Cleveland is 2-7 on the season, which puts them last in the AFC North. They are 1-1 in division games and 2-3 in conference play, with their two wins coming against the Ravens and Jaguars.

Against the spread, the Browns are 3-6, with all three of their ATS wins coming as underdogs. In week 8, they covered the spread and beat the Ravens 29-24, but they couldn’t keep the momentum going, losing 27-10 to the Chargers in week 9. The O/U line for that game was 41.5, and the teams combined for 37 points.

  • Through their last three regular season contests, Cleveland has a record of 1-2. In these contests, the team went just 1-2 against the spread, while going 1-2 on the over-under.
  • Across their five previous road games, Cleveland has an ATS mark of 2-3. Their straight up record in these matchups was 1-4 while averaging 15 points per game.

With their 20-17 win over the Falcons in week 10, the Saints snapped a six-game losing streak and improved to 3-7 this season. New Orleans was a 3.5-point underdog at home, but they managed to cover the spread with the victory. The combined 37 points fell short of the 47-point O/U line. Heading into week 11, the Saints rank 21st in our NFL power rankings and have a 1.3% chance of making the playoffs.

New Orleans is 4-6 against the spread this season, with a -1.9 average scoring margin. They are 1-2 ATS as favorites and 3-4 as underdogs. Their O/U record stands at 6-4, with their games averaging 47.3 points per contest.

  • The Saints have gone 1-2 over their last three regular season games. Across these games, their ATS record was just 1-2, while posting an over-under record of 2-1.
  • Through their last five home games, New Orleans has an ATS record of just 2-3. However, their overall record was 1-4 while averaging 22 points per game.
  • Free Spread Prediction Saints -1 (Bet Now)

Browns vs. Saints Pick: Saints Moneyline (-116)

With the point spread sitting at -1 in favor of the Browns, there is a lot of value in taking the Saints to not only cover but win straight-up. Our projected final score has the Saints coming out on top by a score of 25-20.

For this week 11 matchup between the Browns and Saints, we have a few different ways to attack this one from a betting perspective. First, we like the Saints to cover as home favorites. As for the over/under, with the line sitting at 44 points, we have these teams combining for 45 points, making the over a good play.

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