Jaguars vs Lions Prediction & NFL Odds For Week 11
The Jaguars are +794 on the money line as they face the Lions at 1:00 ET on Sunday, November 17th. The Lions are the heavy favorite in this one, with their money line at -794. The game is being televised on CBS, and the Jaguars are +13 point underdogs on the road. The over/under line is set at 47.5 points.
Prediction at a Glance for Lions vs Jaguars
- We have the Lions winning this one by a score of 30 to 15
- Not only do we have the Lions winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at -13
- We see this game finishing below the line of 47.5 points
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Jaguars +13 | Lions -13
- Total: 47.5
- MoneyLine: Jaguars +522 | Lions -794
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Jaguars vs. Lions Prediction: MoneyLine
Heading into week 11, Jacksonville ranks 21st in our offensive power rankings. They are 18th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 20.2, and 25th in yards per game with 302.9. The Jaguars have struggled on 3rd down, converting just 33% of their attempts, which ranks 27th in the league. They are 21st in passing attempts and 23rd in passing yards per game, averaging 195.2. On the ground, Jacksonville ranks 22nd in rushing attempts and 25th in rushing yards per game, with 107.7.
In week 10, Mac Jones threw for 111 yards, going 14/22 with 2 interceptions. Evan Engram led the team with 6 catches for 40 yards, while Travis Etienne Jr. had 44 rushing yards on 11 carries. The Jaguars scored all 7 of their points in the first quarter and failed to score in the final three quarters.
Heading into week 11, the Lions are 4th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 31.6 points per game, which ranks 2nd in the NFL. They are 7th in the league in passing yards per game (219.6) and 14th in passing attempts (27.7 per game). On the ground, Detroit ranks 5th in rushing attempts and 7th in rushing yards per game, averaging 147.3 yards. They are 6th in the NFL in 3rd-down conversions, with a 43.6% conversion rate.
Jared Goff struggled in week 10, throwing 5 interceptions against the Texans, finishing 15/30 for 240 yards and 2 touchdowns. Sam LaPorta led the team with 66 receiving yards on 3 catches, while Jahmyr Gibbs had 71 rushing yards on 19 carries. Detroit scored 13 points in the 4th quarter after trailing 23-13.
- Free MoneyLine Prediction Lions -794 (Bet Now)
Jaguars vs. Lions Prediction: Total
The Jaguars’ defense played well in the passing game in their 12-7 loss to the Vikings, as they intercepted three passes and held Minnesota to a 63.2% completion rate. However, they struggled to stop the run, giving up 169 rushing yards on 43 attempts. Despite their defensive effort, the offense managed just seven points, and the Jaguars lost the game.
Jacksonville allowed 402 total yards to the Vikings, but Minnesota was unable to score a passing touchdown. The Jaguars’ defense also performed well on third downs, allowing the Vikings to convert just 35.7% of their third down attempts.
In the Lions’ 26-23 win over the Texans, their defense allowed just 56 rushing yards on 28 attempts, giving up only 2.0 yards per attempt on the ground. Detroit’s defense also excelled in the passing game, allowing only 192 passing yards and forcing two interceptions. They held the Texans to a 57.6% completion rate and allowed just one passing touchdown.
Detroit’s defense recorded four sacks in the game and held Houston to a 40% third-down conversion rate. Additionally, they had more tackles for loss and won the quarterback hit differential.
- Free MoneyLine Prediction UNDER 47.5 (Bet Now)
Jaguars vs. Lions Prediction: Spread
Jacksonville heads into week 11 with a 2-8 record, putting them 29th in our power rankings and giving them just a 1.5% chance of making the playoffs. The Jaguars have lost three straight, including a 12-7 home loss to the Vikings in week 10. Despite the defeat, they covered the spread as 7-point underdogs, bringing their ATS record to 6-4 this season. They have covered in four straight games.
In week 9, Jacksonville lost 28-23 on the road to the Eagles, but they covered the 7.5-point spread. In week 8, they were 3.5-point underdogs against the Packers and lost 30-27. The combined scoring of 57 points went over the 49-point line.
- Across Jacksonville’s last three regular season games, their record sits at 0-3. Against the spread, they have a strong mark of 3-0 along with an over-under record of 2-1.
- Across their last five road contests, Jacksonville has a 3-2 record vs the spread. Their overall mark in these games was 0-5, while averaging 17 points per game.
With seven straight wins, the Lions sit atop our power rankings and have a 99.4% chance of making the playoffs. They are 8-1 overall and 2-0 in the division, putting them in first place in the NFC North. Detroit is 5-0 on the road and 3-1 at home, with their only loss coming in week 2 against the Buccaneers. Since then, they’ve won seven in a row, including a 38-point victory over the Titans in week 8 and a 10-point win over the Packers in week 9. In week 10, they beat the Texans 26-23 but didn’t cover the 4-point spread.
Detroit is 7-2 against the spread this season, with an average scoring margin of +12.6 points per game. Their O/U record stands at 4-4-1, with their games averaging 50.6 points compared to an average line of 50.0. Against the Texans, the O/U line was 49, and the teams combined for exactly 49 points.
- Spanning across their last three games, Detroit have gone 2-1. In addition, their ATS record over this stretch is 2-1 while posting a 2-1 over-under mark.
- The Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last home games and 5-0 straight-up.
- Free Spread Prediction Lions -13 (Bet Now)
Jaguars vs. Lions Pick: Lions -13
Our model has the Lions winning this week 11 matchup against the Jaguars by a score of 32-15. Despite the Jaguars being heavy favorites at +13, we are going with the Lions to cover as home favorites.
For this game, we are also leaning towards taking the under, with a projected combined score of 47 points and the O/U line sitting at 47.5 points.
