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Texans vs Patriots Prediction & NFL Odds For Week 6

ByUSA Wager

The Patriots are +254 on the money line as they host the Texans at 1:00 ET on Sunday, October 13th at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA. The Texans are the heavy favorite with a money line of -314 and a point spread of -7. The over/under line is set at 37.5 points for this week six AFC matchup, which is being televised on CBS.

Prediction at a Glance for Patriots vs Texans

  • We have the Patriots winning this one by a score of 20 to 15
  • Not only do we have the Patriots winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at +7
  • We see this game finishing below the line of 37.5 points

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

  • Spread: Texans -7 | Patriots +7
  • Total: 37.5
  • MoneyLine: Texans -314 | Patriots +254

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Texans vs. Patriots Prediction: MoneyLine

Heading into week 6, the Texans are 17th in our offensive power rankings. They lead the NFL in passing yards per game with 272.4, on 38 attempts per game (3rd), while ranking 10th in 3rd-down conversions at 42.3%. Houston is 18th in scoring, averaging 20.4 points per game, and 23rd in rushing yards per game with 104.2, on 26 attempts per game.

C.J. Stroud threw for 331 yards (28/38) and a touchdown in week 5, with one interception and one sack. Cam Akers led the team with 42 rushing yards on 9 carries, while Stefon Diggs had 6 receptions for 82 yards. Nico Collins, who had 151 yards in week 4, is doubtful for week 6 with a hamstring injury.

New England’s offense ranks 27th in our power rankings as they head into week 6. They are 29th in the NFL in both points per game (12.4) and yards per game (250.8). The Patriots have leaned on their rushing attack, ranking 14th in attempts and 8th in yards per game. On the passing side, they are 21st in attempts and 30th in yards per game, averaging 119.4 yards.

Jacoby Brissett threw for 160 yards in week 5, completing 18 of 34 passes. Rhamondre Stevenson led the ground game with 89 yards on 12 carries, while Demario Douglas had 6 receptions for 59 yards. New England scored 10 points against Miami, with all of them coming in the first half.

  • Free MoneyLine Prediction Patriots +254 (Bet Now)

Texans vs. Patriots Prediction: Total

The Texans’ defense was tough to throw against in their 23-20 win over the Bills, allowing just 126 yards through the air on 4 completions. Buffalo managed just a 30% completion rate. However, the Texans did struggle to stop the run, giving up 150 yards on 28 attempts. They defended the pass well, allowing only 4.2 yards per attempt and one touchdown.

On 3rd downs, the Texans held the Bills to just a 21.4% conversion rate. They also came away with one sack and won the quarterback hit battle by three.

In their 15-10 loss to the Dolphins, the Patriots’ defense gave up 193 rushing yards on 41 attempts, including a 35-yard run by Myles Gaskin. Despite this, they held Miami to just 179 passing yards and 5.8 yards per attempt. The Patriots’ defense also recorded three sacks and limited the Dolphins to an 18.2% third-down conversion rate.

The Patriots’ defense kept the Dolphins out of the endzone, as Miami’s only touchdown came on a fumble recovery. New England also picked off one pass and held Miami to a 58.1% completion rate. However, the Patriots’ offense struggled, managing just 10 points and 179 total yards.

  • Free MoneyLine Prediction UNDER 37.5 (Bet Now)

Texans vs. Patriots Prediction: Spread

With a 4-1 record, the Texans sit atop the AFC South and have an 89.1% chance of making the playoffs, according to our projections. They also have a 79.3% chance of winning the division. After a week 3 loss to the Vikings, Houston has bounced back with two straight wins, including a 23-20 victory over the Bills in week 5. The Texans were favored by 1.5 points in that game and covered the spread, bringing their ATS record to 1-4 this season.

Houston ranks 11th in our NFL power rankings heading into week 6. Their average scoring margin this season is -2.4 points, despite their 4-1 record. The under has hit in each of their last four games, including week 5, when the Texans and Bills combined for 43 points, falling short of the 47.5-point line.

  • Houston has put together a record of 2-1 over their past three games. This includes going 1-2 vs. the spread and posting an over-under mark of 0-3.
  • Across the Texans last five road games, the team averaged 17 points per game while allowing 26. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 2-3, while going 3-2 straight-up.

Heading into week 6, the Patriots are looking to snap a four-game losing streak, which includes a 15-10 home loss to the Dolphins in week 5. New England was a 2-point underdog in that game but couldn’t cover the spread, dropping their ATS record to 1-3-1. They’ve been the underdog in all of their games so far this season. Their O/U record stands at 2-3, with their games averaging 32.8 points compared to an average line of 39.6.

Our power rankings have the Patriots 31st in the league, and we give them just a 2.1% chance of making the playoffs. They are currently 4th in the AFC East with a 1-4 record, including 0-2 in division games. New England’s only win came in week 1, when they beat the Bengals 16-10 on the road.

  • New England has put together a record of 0-3 in their last three games (regular season). In these contests, the team went just 0-2-1 against the spread, while going 1-2 on the over-under.
  • Across their last five home contests, New England has a 3-2 record vs the spread. Their overall mark in these games was 2-3, while averaging 15 points per game.
  • Free Spread Prediction Patriots +7 (Bet Now)

Texans vs. Patriots Pick: Patriots Moneyline (+254)

Our pick against the spread in this week six matchup between the Patriots and Texans is to take the Patriots to cover at home. The point spread is currently sitting at +7 in favor of the Patriots, and we have them winning 22-10.

For this one, we are going with the Patriots to cover as home underdogs. If you are looking to make a play on the over/under, we have a slight lean towards the under, with a projected combined score of 32 points and the O/U line at 37.5.

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