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Dolphins vs Patriots Prediction & NFL Odds For Week 5

ByUSA Wager

FOX will be covering the week five AFC East matchup between the Patriots and Dolphins at 1:00 ET. The Patriots are the slight favorite with a point spread of -1. The Patriots’ money line odds are -112, while the Dolphins’ odds are -108. The over/under line is set at 35.5 points.

Prediction at a Glance for Patriots vs Dolphins

  • We have the Patriots winning this one by a score of 22 to 16
  • Not only do we have the Patriots winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at -1
  • Look for this game to go over the line of 35.5 points

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

  • Spread: Dolphins +1 | Patriots -1
  • Total: 35.5
  • MoneyLine: Dolphins -108 | Patriots -112

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Dolphins vs. Patriots Prediction: MoneyLine

The Dolphins’ offense struggled to move the ball in their 31-12 loss to the Titans, managing just 13 first downs and 78 yards passing. Tyler Huntley, filling in at quarterback, threw for 96 yards, completing 63% of his passes but failing to find the end zone. Miami’s running game produced 106 yards, with Huntley leading the team with 40 yards and a touchdown on the ground.

On third downs, the Dolphins converted only 16.7% of their chances and were sacked twice. Jaylen Waddle was the top receiver with 36 yards. Huntley’s 20-yard run was the team’s longest of the game.

New England’s offense struggled in their 30-13 loss to the 49ers, managing just 12 first downs and 143 yards passing. They were held to 73 yards on 24 attempts. Jacoby Brissett, starting at quarterback, was sacked six times and threw for 168 yards, completing 19 of 32 passes and finishing with a passer rating of 70.

Rhamondre Stevenson was the team’s leading rusher with 43 yards, while Antonio Gibson led the team in receiving with 67 yards, 50 of which came on one reception. The Patriots finished with a 31.2% third-down conversion rate and one touchdown, coming on a pass from Brissett to Gibson.

  • Free MoneyLine Prediction Patriots -112 (Bet Now)

Dolphins vs. Patriots Prediction: Total

In their 31-12 loss to the Titans, the Dolphins’ defense gave up just 102 yards through the air, with Tennessee completing only 57.1% of their passes. Miami struggled against the run, allowing 142 yards on 40 attempts, but they did well on third downs, allowing just a 16.7% conversion rate. They also came up with one interception.

Miami’s defense held the Titans to just 244 total yards, but they were hurt by their inability to stop the run, as Tennessee controlled the game on the ground. Despite this, the Dolphins’ defense kept the Titans out of the endzone through the air, and they also managed one sack in the game.

In their 30-13 loss to the 49ers, the Patriots’ defense allowed 431 total yards. They struggled to stop the run, giving up 148 rushing yards on 32 attempts, and the passing game was also tough, as the 49ers averaged 10.5 yards per attempt through the air. Despite allowing just 15 completions, the Patriots gave up a big 145-yard touchdown in the passing game.

New England’s defense did come up with one interception and held the 49ers to a 55.6% completion rate. However, they allowed the 49ers to convert on 53.8% of their third down attempts and struggled to generate consistent pressure, finishing with only one sack and losing the QB hit and tackles for loss differentials.

  • Free Total Prediction OVER 35.5 (Bet Now)

Dolphins vs. Patriots Prediction: Spread

The Dolphins’ 31-12 loss to the Titans dropped their record to 1-3 for the season. Miami was favored by -2.5 but lost straight-up by 19 points. The Titans led 9-3 at halftime, and Miami’s only touchdown came in the 4th quarter with a 1-yard rush from Tyler Huntley.

Miami’s defense struggled in the 3rd quarter, as the Titans extended their lead to 26-6 with touchdowns from Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. The Dolphins added another touchdown with 30 seconds left in the 4th quarter. The over/under line for the game was 37.5 points, and the teams combined for 43 points.

  • Over their last three regular season games, the Dolphins have gone 0-3 straight up. In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 0-3 and an over-under mark of 1-2.
  • Through their last five road contests, the Dolphins offense has averaged 21 points per game while allowing an average of 26. Miami posted an overall record of 2-3 while going 2-3 ATS.

The Patriots are now 1-3 after a 30-13 loss to the 49ers. New England fell behind early, with the 49ers leading 6-0 after the 1st quarter. The Patriots added a field goal in the 2nd quarter but also allowed two touchdowns, and at halftime, they were down 20-3.

New England made the score 20-10 in the 3rd quarter with a touchdown from Austin Hooper, but the 49ers responded with a touchdown of their own. The Patriots added a field goal in the 4th. Despite the loss, the Patriots did manage to score a touchdown with 4:34 remaining in the 4th quarter.

  • Over their last three regular season games, the Patriots have gone 0-3 straight up. Across these games, their ATS record was just 0-1-2, while posting an over-under record of 2-1.
  • In their last five home games, New England has averaged 15 points per game while allowing 22. The team’s record in this stretch was 2-3 while going 3-2.
  • Free Spread Prediction Patriots -1 (Bet Now)

Dolphins vs. Patriots Pick: Patriots Moneyline (-112)

Our pick against the spread is to take the Patriots to cover as home favorites in this week five matchup between the Dolphins and Patriots. Despite the Dolphins being the slight favorite at +1, we have the Patriots pulling off the upset by a score of 22-16.

For this one, we are going with the Patriots to not only win straight-up but to cover the spread. As for the over/under, with the line sitting at 35.5 points, we like the over, projecting a combined score of 38 points.

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