Mets vs Brewers Prediction & MLB Odds For Tuesday, October 1st
At 5:32 PM ET, the Mets and Brewers will square off in an NL matchup. This one is being played at American Family Field in Milwaukee, and the Brewers are the favorites on the money line (-140). The Mets have an overall record of 89-73 and they are 2nd in the NL East, while the Brewers are 1st in the NL Central with a record of 93-69.
Today’s over/under line is sitting at 7.5 runs, and the game will be televised on ESPN. Luis Severino will start for the Mets, while the Brewers are going with Freddy Peralta.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Mets 1.5 (-189) | Brewers -1.5 (+156)
- Total: 7.5
- MoneyLine: Mets +119 | Brewers -140
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Mets vs. Brewers Prediction: Moneyline
The Mets will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Braves with a 3-0 loss. New York was the +263 underdog on the money line going into this matchup. Things started off well for the Mets, as Joey Lucchesi was sharp out of the gates, but he took the loss, as the Mets didn’t score a run.
Lucchesi put together a good start for the Mets, going six innings and giving up just one earned run, and striking out five. However, the Mets’s offense was shut out, and New York’s three hits were all singles. The Mets also wasted a good performance from Lucchesi, as they were the +263 underdog going into the game.
New York is 89-73 overall and trails the Phillies by six games in the NL East. The Mets are 30-22 against other teams in the NL East. Today, they will be on the road to take on the Brewers with an overall road record of 43-38. At home, the Mets are 46-35 this season.
As the favorite, the Mets have gone 59-39 this season and 30-34 as the underdog. New York’s overall series record is 28-18-9, and they split their most recent series vs. the Braves. Heading into today’s game, the Mets are 5-5 over their last 10.
New York cruised to a 5-0 win over the Brewers in the most recent game of this series. The Mets had a huge 4th inning, scoring all five of their runs. As for the Brewers, they only had three hits in the game and didn’t score a run until the 9th inning.
David Peterson pitched well for the Mets in this one, going seven innings and striking out eight without giving up a run. He picked up a win in the game, while Colin Rea took the loss for Milwaukee.
Francisco Lindor and Francisco Alvarez each homered for the Mets, while J.D. Martinez went 2/5 with an RBI in his return to the lineup. Mark Vientos also had a two-hit game and scored a run for New York’s offense.
Milwaukee is 93-69 overall this season, and they lead the NL Central by 10 games over the Cardinals. The Brewers have gone 32-20 against other teams in the NL Central. At home, the Brewers are 47-34 this season.
The Brewers have been good on the road, putting together a record of 46-35. So far, they have been the favorite in 92 of their games, going 54-38 in those matchups. As the underdog, the Brewers are 39-31 this year.
Mets vs. Brewers Prediction: Over/Under
When the New York Mets are on the road, the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs. The Mets have played 109 games with higher over/under lines than that, and their games have averaged 9.0 runs per game. This season, the Mets have an over/under record of 81-76, and when the line is set at 7.5 runs, they have gone over 23 times and under 17 times.
Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso have been two of the Mets’ top power threats this season, as Alonso is 10th in the league with 34 homers, and Lindor is just behind him with 33. Lindor comes into the game with a team-high 91 RBIs and is batting .273 for the season. He has also been hot of late, going 6/17 in his last four games with two homers. Jose Iglesias has also been swinging a hot bat for the Mets, going 7/20 in his last five games.
As a team, the Mets are 7th in the league in runs scored at 4.7 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 4.8 runs per contest. Overall, they are the 6th ranked home run hitting team in the league and are batting a collective .246.
The Milwaukee Brewers have had a high-scoring season, as their games have averaged 8.8 runs per game. They have gone over the over/under line in 81 of their 152 games this season, and their over/under record when the line is set at 7.5 runs is 23-16. The Brewers have had over/under lines set at 7.5 runs in 117 of their games this season, and the over has hit in 72.2% of those games.
William Contreras has been swinging a hot bat of late for the Brewers, going 7/23 in his last seven games with four runs scored and one home run. For the season, he is batting .281 with 23 homers, which is 3rd on the team. Willy Adames has been a key run producer for the Brewers this season, as his 112 RBIs are 4th in the league and lead the team. He also has a team-high 32 homers.
As a team, the Brewers are 6th in the league in scoring at 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are the league’s 7th-ranked batting average team, hitting a combined .248. Currently, Brice Turang and Jackson Chourio are both on hitting streaks for the Brewers.
Mets vs. Brewers Prediction: Spread
When the Mets are on the road, they have a +0.3 run differential and are 44-37 vs. the run line. They have a +0.4 run differential overall this season and are 82-80 vs. the run line. Their run line record as the favorite is 45-53 and as the underdog is 37-27. In their wins, they have an average run differential of +3.7 runs, while in their losses, it’s -3.5 runs.
New York is sending Luis Severino to the mound today vs. the Brewers, and he comes in with a record of 11-7 and an ERA of 3.91. So far, he has made 31 starts and 14 of them have been quality starts. This season, Severino has one complete game shutout. Looking back at his last outing, Severino took the loss vs. the Braves, giving up four earned runs in four innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. So far, he has been much better at home, coming in with a 7-2 record and 3.64 ERA compared to 4-5 with a 5.19 ERA on the road.
When betting the run line on the Brewers, it’s been more profitable to take them as the underdog, as they are 46-24 against the run line in those games. They have a run line record of 37-44 at home and 45-36 on the road. Their average run margin in winning games is 3.6, while it’s -2.9 in losing games.
Freddy Peralta will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Pirates, as he gets the start for the Brewers today. In that outing, which came on September 25th, he took the loss, going 5 1/3 innings and giving up two earned runs. Looking back further, Peralta has made 32 starts this season and has a record of 11-9. His ERA for the season is 3.68, along with a WHIP of 1.22. For the year, Peralta has allowed 26 home runs and is averaging 10.36 strikeouts per nine innings. Peralta’s ERA at home is 4.12 compared to 3.7 on the road.
Mets vs. Brewers Pick: Brewers ML -140
Our predicted score for this one is 4-3 in favor of the Brewers, and we would recommend taking them on the money line at -140. We do see this as a close game, and with the payout for a Brewers win at -140, we like the value here.
Looking at some potential player props, we have Freddy Peralta finishing with six strikeouts, which is the second-best among today’s starters. For Luis Severino, we have him ending the game with five K’s, which is the lowest among today’s starters.
