Tigers vs Astros Prediction & MLB Odds For Tuesday, October 1st
The Tigers and Astros are set to face off in an AL matchup at 2:32 PM ET from Minute Maid Park in Houston, TX. Detroit is currently on a two-game losing streak and their record of 86-76 has them 3rd in the AL Central. The Astros have won two straight and are 1st in the AL West with an overall record of 88-73.
ABC will be televising this game, and the Astros are the favorites on the money line, with the odds sitting at -148 compared to the Tigers at +126. Tuesday’s starting pitching matchup features Tarik Skubal for the Tigers and Framber Valdez for the Astros.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Tigers 1.5 (-197) | Astros -1.5 (+162)
- Total: 6.5
- MoneyLine: Tigers +126 | Astros -148
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Tigers vs. Astros Prediction: Moneyline
The Tigers will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the White Sox with a 9-5 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 5th inning before the White Sox scored four runs in the top of the 7th. Detroit was the -238 favorite at home going into the game.
Kenta Maeda had a rough outing, giving up five earned runs on five hits and issuing three walks. The Tigers also wasted a big game from Kerry Carpenter, who homered in the 1st inning, going 1/5.
Detroit is 86-76 overall, and they trail the Guardians and Royals by 6.5 games in the AL Central. The Tigers have dropped two straight games, losing the final two games of their series vs. the White Sox. So far, they have gone 28-24 against other teams in the AL Central.
As the road team today, the Tigers are 43-38 at home and 43-38 on the road. Detroit has won two straight games as the underdog, and they are 46-50 when the underdog this year. They have also won three straight series on the road, and their overall series record is 26-20-5.
Houston closed out their series vs. the Guardians with a 4-3 win on the road. Heading into the game, the Astros were the +130 underdog. Things started off well for the Astros, as they got on the board with a run in the 1st inning and added three more runs in the 2nd.
Justin Verlander put together a good start for the Astros, going six innings and giving up three earned runs, and picking up the win. Houston’s offense was carried by Mauricio Dubon, who went 2/4 with two doubles and two RBIs.
The Astros are 88-73 overall this season, and they lead the AL West by 3.5 games over the Mariners. Houston will be taking on the Tigers at home today, and they are 46-35 at home this season. The Astros have gone 42-38 on the road.
Houston has an overall series record of 27-22-2 this season, and they closed out their series vs. the Guardians with two straight wins. As the favorite, the Astros are 67-51 this season, and they are 43-29 as the home favorite. So far, they have gone 29-23 in divisional games.
Tigers vs. Astros Prediction: Over/Under
The Detroit Tigers are on the road today against the Houston Astros, and the over/under line for the game is set at 6.5 runs. The Tigers have played 157 games this season with over/under lines higher than 6.5 runs, and their combined run average for the year is 8.2 runs per game. Their over/under record for the season is 78-79, and their over/under record when the line is set at 6.5 runs is 3-1.
Over the last six games, Parker Meadows has gone 8/22 for the Tigers, including one home run. Kerry Carpenter has also homered in this stretch, but he is just 3/16 in his last five games. Carpenter is batting .284 for the season, which is the best mark on the team, and he is 2nd on the team with 18 homers.
Heading into today’s game, Riley Greene and Colt Keith are the top two run producers for the Tigers, with Greene leading the team with 74 RBIs and Keith is 2nd with 61. Greene has also gone deep 24 times, which is the top mark on the team. Overall, the Tigers are 19th in the league in scoring, at 4.2 runs per game.
The Houston Astros have played in 160 games with over/under lines set higher than 6.5 runs this season, and their games have averaged 8.6 runs per game. Their over/under record is 65-90 on the season, and they have gone under the total in two straight games. Today’s over/under line is set at 6.5 runs, and the Astros are 0-1 in games with that line this season.
Yordan Alvarez has been the Astros’ top power threat this season, as his 35 homers are the best mark on the team and 9th in the league. He also leads the team with 86 RBIs. Alvarez is batting .308 for the season, which is 2nd on the team. Alex Bregman has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 8/17 in his last five games with two homers and five RBIs.
As a team, the Astros are averaging 4.6 runs per game, which is 10th in the league. They are also one of the top home run hitting teams in the league and have the 2nd best team batting average in the league. Overall, they have been good at home, averaging 4.9 runs per game.
Tigers vs. Astros Prediction: Spread
When the Tigers are on the road, they have a run line record of 51-30, and they have covered the run line in two straight games. As the underdog, they are 62-34 against the run line, while they are just 24-42 as the favorite. Their average run differential on the road is +0.4 runs per game.
Detroit is sending left-hander Tarik Skubal to the mound today vs. the Astros. He has made 31 starts this season and has a record of 18-4 with a 2.39 ERA. Skubal’s WHIP for the season is .92, and he has turned in 22 quality starts. Skubal has been especially tough at home, coming in with a record of 10-1 and an ERA of 2.02. On the road, his ERA is 3.09, and he is 8-3. In his last outing, Skubal didn’t give up a run in seven innings of work, picking up the win. He has won each of his last two starts.
When betting the run line on Astros games, it’s been a mixed bag this season. They’re 83-78 overall, but have been better on the road (45-35) than at home (38-43). They’ve been a better bet as the underdog (28-15) than as the favorite (55-63). Their average run margin in winning games is 3.6, while it’s -3.1 in losses.
Framber Valdez gets the start for the Astros today vs. the Tigers and comes into the game with a record of 15-7 and an ERA of 2.91. So far this year, he has made 28 starts, one of which was a complete game. Valdez has turned in 17 quality starts and is averaging 8.63 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, he went 5 2/3 innings, giving up three earned runs, and got the win. Before that, he had gone three straight starts without giving up an earned run. Valdez has been much better at home, coming in with a 9-2 record and 2.98 ERA compared to 6-5 with a 3.78 ERA on the road.
Tigers vs. Astros Pick: Astros ML -148
Our prediction for this Tigers vs. Astros matchup is to take the Astros on the money line at -148. We actually have the Astros winning this one by a score of 4-3, so you could also look to take the Astros on the run line if you can get a better payout.
Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Framber Valdez finishing with five strikeouts, which is actually better than Skubal, who we have finishing with five. Offensively, we have the Astros finishing with six hits compared to the Tigers with six.
