Mets vs Braves Prediction & MLB Odds For Monday, September 30th
Both the Mets and Braves come into Monday’s NL East matchup with an overall record of 88-72. This game is set to get started at 1:10 PM ET from Truist Park in Atlanta, GA. Tylor Megill is starting for the Mets, while the Braves are going with Spencer Schwellenbach. Atlanta is favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -157 compared to the Mets at +133. Today’s over/under line is sitting at 7.5 runs, and the game will be televised on SNY.
There is a chance of rain in the forecast for Monday’s game, with temperatures expected to be in the mid to upper 60s. The Mets are +1.5 on the run line, and the Braves are 1-3 in their last four games, while the Mets have gone 4-1.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Mets 1.5 (-169) | Braves -1.5 (+141)
- Total: 7.5
- MoneyLine: Mets +133 | Braves -157
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Mets vs. Braves Prediction: Moneyline
Heading into their last game vs. the Brewers, the Mets closed out the series with a 5-0 win. Leading up to the game, they were the slight favorite at -143 on the money line. It was a big first inning for the Mets, as they scored their first run of the game and added three more in the 4th.
David Peterson put together a good start for the Mets, going seven innings and not giving up a run. He also issued just three hits and struck out eight Brewers batters. Francisco Lindor was hot at the plate, going 2/4 with a homer and two RBIs.
With an overall record of 88-72, the Mets are six games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. The Mets are 29-21 against other teams in the NL East. New York is on the road today, and they are 42-37 on the road this year.
So far, the Mets have been the favorite in 98 games, and they have gone 59-39 in those games. As the underdog, the Mets are 29-33, which includes going 21-21 as the road underdog. The Mets are coming off losing their series vs. the Brewers 2-1.
The Braves will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Royals with a 4-2 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 4th inning before the Royals scored three runs in the top of the 4th. Atlanta was the -218 favorite at home going into the game.
Charlie Morton took the loss, going 4 1/3 innings and giving up four earned runs on five hits. The Braves’s offense scored their only two runs in thejson 3rd, with Gio Urshela going 2/4 with a homer.
With an overall record of 88-72, the Braves are six games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. Currently, they are also chasing the Mets, who are in 2nd place in the division and also lead the Braves by six games. Atlanta’s overall record in the division is 27-23 this season.
Atlanta has won three straight series, and they are 29-16-7 in series this year. At home, the Braves are 45-34 compared to a 43-38 mark on the road. As the favorite, the Braves have gone 75-54 this year, and they are 13-18 as the underdog.
Mets vs. Braves Prediction: Over/Under
Today’s over/under line for the New York Mets’ game against the Atlanta Braves is set at 7.5 runs, which is below their season average of 8 runs per game. The Mets have played to the over in 80 of their 155 games this season, and their games have averaged a combined 9 runs per game. The under has hit in their last two games, and they have played to the over in 67.5% of their games this season when the line has been set at 7.5 runs.
Over the past seven games, Jose Iglesias has been hot for the Mets, going 12/28 (.429) with one home run and two runs scored. Iglesias also comes into the game with a 20-game hitting streak. Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, and Brandon Nimmo are all tied for the team lead with 88 RBIs. Alonso and Lindor are also 1st and 2nd on the team in homers, respectively.
As a team, the Mets are 5th in home runs and are averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 7th in the league. Their team batting average of .247 is 8th in the MLB, and they are also among the league leaders in isolated power. Overall, the Mets have been a good road hitting team, as they are averaging 4.8 runs per game away from home.
When the Atlanta Braves are at home, the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, and their games have averaged 8.1 runs per game this season. The Braves have an over/under record of 58-96 on the year, and their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs. When the line is set at 7.5 runs, their over/under record is 13-22. Overall, 72.5% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs, while only 5.6% have had lower lines. The Braves have hit the under in their last four games.
For the season, the Braves are averaging 4.3 runs per game, which is 15th in the league. They have been a better offensive team on the road, averaging 4.8 runs per game. As a team, the Braves are batting .243, which is 11th in the league, and they are also 4th in the league in home runs. Currently, they are 4th in the league in isolated power.
Marcell Ozuna comes into the game with a team-high 39 home runs, which is 5th in the league, and his 102 RBIs are 10th in the majors. Ozuna is also batting .304 for the season. Matt Olson is 2nd on the team with 29 homers and has driven in 98 runs. Over his last five games, Michael Harris II is hitting .400 with one home run.
Mets vs. Braves Prediction: Spread
When betting the Mets on the run line, it’s been a coin flip proposition overall, as they’ve gone 81-79. They’ve been slightly better on the road, going 43-36, compared to 38-43 at home. The Mets’ average run differential for the season is +0.5, and they’ve been even better in their victories, with an average margin of +3.7 runs per game.
Tylor Megill is looking to bounce back from his last outing, where he finished with a no-decision vs. the Phillies. In that September 22nd outing, he went 4 innings, giving up 1 earned run on 6 hits. Looking back further, Megill has made 14 starts and three of them have been quality starts. His ERA for the season is 3.98, along with a record of 4-5. Megill’s WHIP for the season is 1.27, and opponents are batting .218 vs. Megill this season. Per nine innings, he is averaging 10.33 strikeouts and 3.73 walks.
Atlanta has been a solid run line bet this season, going 76-84 overall, but they have been better on the road (43-38) than at home (33-46). They have been a better run line bet as an underdog (18-13) than as a favorite (58-71), and their average run margin in winning games is +3.8 runs per game.
Braves starter Spencer Schwellenbach has been pitching well lately, as he has won each of his last three outings. Most recently, he faced the Mets on September 24th and picked up the win, going seven innings and giving up just one earned run. Looking at his overall numbers, Schwellenbach has made 20 starts, and his record for the season is 8-7. The right-hander’s ERA is 3.47, and he has a WHIP of 1.07. Opposing batters are hitting .228 off Schwellenbach this season. He has turned in 11 quality starts and is averaging 9.41 strikeouts per nine innings.
Mets vs. Braves Pick: Mets ML +133
Our pick for today’s Mets vs. Braves matchup is to take the Mets on the money line, with the payout sitting at +133. We actually have the Mets winning this one by a score of 6-5. If you’re looking for a potential parlay option, the over/under is at 7.5 runs, and we would recommend taking the over.
Looking at some potential player props, we have Mets starter Tylor Megill finishing with seven strikeouts. As for Braves starter Spencer Schwellenbach, he is projected to finish with seven K’s as well.
