Reds vs Cubs Prediction & MLB Odds For Sunday, September 29th

From Wrigley Field in Chicago, we have the Reds and Cubs facing off in an NL Central matchup. This one gets started at 3:20 PM ET, and BSOH is carrying it on TV. The money line odds have the Reds at -124 compared to the Cubs at +104. The over/under line is sitting at 7 runs.

Caleb Kilian is starting for the Cubs, and they are 83-78, putting them 2nd in the NL Central. The Reds are 5th in the division with an overall record of 76-85. Hunter Greene goes for the Reds. Cincinnati is currently on a 5 game losing streak.

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

• Spread: Reds -1.5 (+142) | Cubs 1.5 (-174)
• Total: 7
• MoneyLine: Reds -124 | Cubs +104

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Reds vs. Cubs Prediction: Moneyline

Chicago cruised to a 3-0 win over the Reds in the most recent game of this series. The Cubs had a huge 8th inning, scoring all three of their runs. As for the Reds, they had their best chance to score in the 7th but left the bases loaded. Heading into the game, the Cubs were favored at -130.

Kyle Hendricks started for the Cubs and picked up the win, going 7 1/3 innings and not giving up a run. He finished the game with just two strikeouts but induced a lot of weak contact. On the other side, Rhett Lowder got the start for the Reds and took the loss, going five innings and giving up three earned runs.

Seiya Suzuki was the difference for the Cubs’ offense, as he went 2/2 with a run scored and an RBI. Both Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo scored a run and drove in a run for Chicago.

Cincinnati is on a five-game losing streak, and they are 76-85 overall this season. The Reds are in 5th place in the NL Central, and they trail the Brewers by 17 games for the division lead. So far, they are 23-28 in divisional matchups.

At home, the Reds are 39-42 this season, and they are 37-43 on the road. As the road favorite, the Reds have gone 12-6 this season, and they are 35-34 as the favorite overall. Cincinnati has dropped five straight road games and are 19-29-3 in series this year.

With an overall record of 83-78, the Cubs are 10 games behind the Brewers for the NL Central lead. The Cubs have taken the first two games of this series, and they are 23-28 against other teams in the division. Chicago has won two straight games and are 6-4 across their last 10.

At home, the Cubs are 44-36 this season and 39-42 on the road. As the favorite, the Cubs have gone 45-38 and 38-40 as the underdog. Chicago has been good as the home underdog this year, going 14-10.

Reds vs. Cubs Prediction: Over/Under

The Reds have played to the under in six straight games and have an over/under record of 73-81 this season. Their games have averaged 8.6 runs per game, and the average over/under line in their games this season has been 9 runs. Cincinnati has played just seven games with an over/under line of 7 runs, going 2-3-2 in those contests. Overall, 95% of their games have had higher lines than today’s 7-run total.

Elly De La Cruz has been swinging a hot bat for the Reds of late, going 11/38 in his last nine games with one home run and five RBIs. For the season, he is batting .259 with a team-high 25 homers and 74 RBIs. Spencer Steer and Jeimer Candelario are also tied for 2nd on the team with 20 homers, but both are batting below .230 for the season.

As a team, the Reds are averaging 4.3 runs per game, which is 16th in the league. They are also 16th in home runs and have a team batting average of just .231. The Reds have just one player with a current hitting streak, with Nick Martini having hits in three straight games.

The Cubs are 4-6-1 when the over/under line is set at 7 runs, and they have played 147 games with higher lines. Their games have averaged 8.7 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 75-80 overall. The over/under line for today’s game is set at 7 runs.

Chicago’s offense has been good on the road this season, averaging 5.1 runs per game, which is 4th in the league. Overall, they are 12th in the MLB at 4.6 runs per contest. The Cubs have been one of the better teams in terms of drawing walks this season and have a team on-base percentage of .318 (9th). As a team, the Cubs are batting .243, and their team slugging percentage of .395 is 15th in the league.

Over his last nine games, Nico Hoerner has gone 12/32 with two homers and seven runs scored. This has improved his season batting average to .274. Ian Happ and Michael Busch are tied for 2nd on the team with 21 homers apiece, with Happ leading the Cubs with 86 RBIs. Seiya Suzuki has the 2nd best batting average on the team at .283 and is on a four-game hitting streak.

Reds vs. Cubs Prediction: Spread

The Reds have been a solid bet against the run line this season, going 86-75 overall. They have been particularly good on the road, going 48-32, but have struggled at home, going just 38-43. Overall, they have an average run margin of 0.0 runs per game, but that number jumps to 0.4 runs per game on the road.

Hunter Greene is looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Pirates, as he gets the start for the Reds today. In that start, which came on September 22nd, he took the loss, going 3 innings and giving up 1 earned run. Looking back further, Greene has a record of 9-5, and his ERA for the season is 2.83. Opponents have a batting average of .179 vs. Greene this season. So far, he has made 25 starts, one of which was a complete game, and he has 13 quality starts. Per nine innings, Greene is averaging 10.21 strikeouts and 3.32 walks.

The Cubs have been a good run line bet on the road, going 47-34, but they have been a poor bet at home, going 31-49. They have a run line record of 28-55 as the favorite and 50-28 as the underdog. Their average run differential in winning games is +3.8, while their average run differential in losing games is -3.1.

Caleb Kilian will be making his first start of the season for the Cubs, as he is coming off a relief appearance against the Phillies. In that outing, Kilian went 5 2/3 innings, giving up 6 runs (5 earned) and took the loss. He did strike out 8 batters, but did give up 2 home runs.

Reds vs. Cubs Pick: Cubs ML +104

Our pick for this Reds vs. Cubs matchup is to take the Cubs on the money line at +104. With the Cubs predicted to win this one 6-5, there is some value in taking them to win outright and not worry about the run line.

Looking at the starting pitchers, Hunter Greene does have the highest strikeout projection among starters, but he is fourth in terms of projected earned runs allowed. If you’re looking at a starting pitcher to pick up a win, Greene is third in terms of likelihood.