Rays vs Red Sox Prediction & MLB Odds For Sunday, September 29th

Both the Rays and Red Sox will be looking to pick up a win and move above .500 for the season, as they are currently 80-81. This AL East matchup is set for 3:05 PM ET from Fenway Park in Boston, and the Rays are the slight money line favorite (-115).

Today’s over/under line is sitting at 8.5 runs, and BSSUN will be televising this one. Ryan Pepiot is starting for the Rays, while the Red Sox are going with Quinn Priester. Boston is currently on a three-game losing streak.

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

• Spread: Rays -1.5 (+143) | Red Sox 1.5 (-175)
• Total: 8.5
• MoneyLine: Rays -115 | Red Sox -105

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Rays vs. Red Sox Prediction: Moneyline

Tampa Bay cruised to a 7-2 win over the Red Sox in the most recent game of this series. The Rays had a huge 5th inning, scoring four of their seven runs. As for the Red Sox, they scored their only two runs in the 6th. Heading into the game, the Rays were the slight underdogs at +101.

Shane Baz started for the Rays and picked up the win, going six innings and giving up just two earned runs. He finished the game with seven strikeouts but issued a season-high five walks. Kutter Crawford got the start for the Red Sox and took the loss, going just 4 1/3 innings and giving up six earned runs.

At the plate, the Rays were led by Junior Caminero and Brandon Lowe, as they were the only two Rays hitters to have more than one hit. Caminero also homered and drove in three runs. Josh Lowe scored twice for the Rays and drove in two runs.

Tampa Bay is 80-81 overall, and they are 13.0 games behind the Yankees for the AL East lead. Currently, they are 3rd in the AL East, and they have gone 26-25 in divisional games this year. The Rays have won two straight games, and they are 6-4 across their last 10.

At home, the Rays have gone 42-39 this year, and they are 38-42 on the road. As the favorite, the Rays are 37-31 this year and 43-50 as the underdog. Tampa Bay’s overall series record is 23-20-7, and they are up 2-0 in the series vs. the Red Sox.

Boston is 80-81 overall, and they are 13 games behind the Yankees for the AL East lead. Currently, they are 4th in the AL East, tied with the Rays. The Red Sox have dropped three straight games, and these have come after winning two straight games.

At home, the Red Sox are 37-43 this season, and they are 43-38 on the road. As the underdog, Boston is 39-44 this year, and they are 41-37 when favored. So far, they have an overall series record of 25-19-6, and they have won two straight series.

Rays vs. Red Sox Prediction: Over/Under

The Tampa Bay Rays are on the road against the Boston Red Sox today. The over/under line for the game is set at 8.5 runs, which is slightly higher than their combined run average of 7.8 runs per game. The Rays have a 67-85 over/under record this season, and their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs. When the over/under line has been set at 8.5 runs, their record is 17-17. Only 7.5% of their games this season have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs or higher.

Coming into today’s game, the Rays are 29th in the league in scoring, averaging just 3.7 runs per game. This is also where they rank in terms of home runs, as they have just 147 homers as a team. The team’s batting average of .230 is also towards the bottom of the league. Yandy Diaz is hitting just .281, but this is good enough to be the team’s best mark. He also leads the team with 65 RBIs.

Brandon Lowe and Christopher Morel are tied for the team lead in homers, but Lowe has the better batting average of the two, hitting .244 compared to Morel’s mark of .194. Lowe has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 8/29 in his last seven games with two homers.

When the Boston Red Sox play at home, the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs. Their games have averaged 9.3 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 79-74. When the line is set at 8.5, their record is 25-17. Overall, 39.1% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 8.5 runs.

For the season, the Red Sox are averaging 4.6 runs per game, which is 9th in the league. They have been a bit better on the road, averaging 4.8 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .252, which is the 5th best mark in the league, and are also among the league leaders in slugging percentage and OPS. The Red Sox are also one of the best teams in terms of avoiding strikeouts.

Rafael Devers has been one of the league’s top power hitters this season, as his 28 homers are 15th best in the MLB. He also leads the Red Sox with 83 RBIs. Jarren Duran has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 10/33 in his last eight games. For the season, he is batting .285 and has 21 homers.

Rays vs. Red Sox Prediction: Spread

Despite an overall run differential of -0.4 runs per game, the Rays have been a solid run line bet at 84-77 this season. They have been particularly good on the road, going 47-33 against the run line away from home. They have covered the run line in three straight road games and are 60-33 against the run line as an underdog this season.

Ryan Pepiot gets the start for the Rays today as he faces the Red Sox on the road. He has made 25 starts this season and has a record of 8-7 with a 3.64 ERA. Pepiot’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.14, and he has turned in nine quality starts. In his last outing, Pepiot took the loss, giving up two earned runs in five innings of work. Before that, he had gone three straight outings without taking the loss. One of those outings was a win, and the other two were no-decisions. Per nine innings, Pepiot is averaging 9.79 strikeouts and 3.29 walks.

When playing at home, the Red Sox have struggled to cover the run line this season, going just 30-50. They have been outscored by an average of 0.4 runs per game at Fenway Park. Overall, they are 76-85 against the run line, with an average run margin of 0.0 runs per game. Their run line record as an underdog is a solid 48-35, while they are just 28-50 against the run line as the favorite.

Red Sox starter Quinn Priester is looking to bounce back from a rough outing out of the bullpen. In his most recent appearance, he took the loss, giving up five earned runs in four innings of work. Looking back over his last four outings, Priester has alternated between wins and losses. His record for the season is 2-6, and he has an ERA of 5.04. Opposing batters are hitting .277 off the right-hander this season. Priester has made two quality starts this year and is averaging 6.25 strikeouts per nine innings.

Rays vs. Red Sox Pick: Red Sox ML -105

With the Red Sox at -105 on the money line, we see this as a great opportunity to get some value on the home team. Our predicted final score is 5-4 in favor of the Red Sox, and with this payout, there is some room to take them on the run line if you would like.

If you’re looking at the starting pitchers, Quinn Priester is projected to finish with just four strikeouts, which is second-worst among all starters today. As for Ryan Pepiot, his six strikeouts have him in the middle of the pack.