Phillies vs Nationals Prediction & MLB Odds For Saturday, September 28th
At 4:05 PM ET, the Phillies and Nationals face off in an NL East matchup. This one is taking place at Nationals Park in Washington, and the Phillies are the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -219 compared to the Nationals at +184. The over/under line is currently 7.5 runs.
MacKenzie Gore will start for the Nationals, while the Phillies are going with Zack Wheeler. Philadelphia is currently 94-66 and they are 1st in the NL East, while the Nationals are 4th in the division at 70-90. MASN is carrying this one on TV.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Phillies -1.5 (-124) | Nationals 1.5 (+103)
- Total: 7.5
- MoneyLine: Phillies -219 | Nationals +184
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Phillies vs. Nationals Prediction: Moneyline
Washington cruised to a 9-1 win over the Phillies in the most recent game of this series. The Nationals had a huge 1st inning, scoring four of their nine runs. As for the Phillies, they scored their only run in the 4th. Heading into the game, the Nationals were at +155 on the money line.
Ranger Suarez got the start for the Phillies, going just two innings while giving up six runs and took the loss. Trevor Williams put together a good outing for the Nationals, getting the win after going five innings and not giving up a run.
Austin Hays was the only Phillies hitter to have more than one hit, going 2/3 with an RBI. Stone Garrett had a big game for the Nationals, going 3/4 with a home run and three RBIs.
Philadelphia is 94-66 overall this season, putting them 1st in the NL East. They hold a six-game lead over the Mets for the division lead. The Phillies have gone 28-22 in divisional games this season.
The Phillies have been really good at home this season, going 54-27. On the road, they are just above .500 at 40-39. This season, they have really thrived as the favorite, going 81-48. As the underdog, the Phillies are 13-18 this season. Their overall series record is 27-18-7.
Washington is 70-90 overall this year, and they are 24 games behind the Phillies in the NL East. The Nationals have gone 24-26 in divisional games this year. Currently, they are 4th in the NL East, and they trail the Braves by 6.0 games for the 3rd spot in the division.
The Nationals have really struggled as of late, going just 2-8 over their last 10 games. At home, they are 37-42 compared to 33-48 on the road. So far, they have been the underdog in most of their games, and they are 26-33 as the home underdog this year. Washington’s overall series record is 19-25-6, and they have dropped three straight series.
Phillies vs. Nationals Prediction: Over/Under
Philadelphia is on the road today against the Washington Nationals. The over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs, which is lower than their season average of 8 runs per game. The over/under record for the Phillies this season is 76-75, and when the line is set at 7.5 runs, they are 15-16. Their games have averaged 9 runs per game this season, and their current over streak is at three games.
Philadelphia comes into today’s game as one of the league’s top offenses, averaging 4.8 runs per game (4th) and batting a collective .258 (4th). They have also been one of the league’s top home run-hitting teams, as their 197 homers is 6th in the league. The Phillies have been even better at home, averaging 5.1 runs per game.
Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber have been two of the Phillies’ top power threats this season, with Harper’s 30 homers being 2nd on the team and Schwarber leading the way with 38 long balls. Schwarber has gone deep three times in his last nine games, but he is hitting just .216 over that stretch. Nick Castellanos has been red hot of late, going 14/32 in his last nine games, including two homers.
Washington’s games have had an average of 8.8 runs per game this season, and their games have gone over the total 75 times and under 79 times. When the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, their games have gone over 17 times and under 12 times. Overall, 79.4% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs.
Washington’s offense has been inconsistent this season, as they are just 25th in the league in runs per game at 4.1. This is also the 24th ranked home run hitting team in the MLB. However, they do come into the game with the 10th best batting average in the league. Collectively, the Nationals have been good at putting the ball in play, as they have the 5th fewest strikeouts in the league.
Luis Garcia Jr. and CJ Abrams have been two of the Nationals’ top power threats this season, as they have 17 and 20 home runs, respectively. Garcia Jr. is batting .281 for the season, while Abrams is hitting just .246. Joey Gallo has struggled of late, hitting just .217 over his last eight games, but he does have two homers in that stretch.
Phillies vs. Nationals Prediction: Spread
Philadelphia has been a solid run line bet this season, going 77-83 overall. The Phillies have been better at covering the run line on the road (40-39) than at home (37-44). They have a run line losing streak of three games on the road, and their average run margin in winning games is 3.9.
Zack Wheeler will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Mets, as he gets the start for the Phillies today. In that September 22nd outing, he took the loss, going seven innings and giving up two earned runs. Before that, he had won three straight starts. Wheeler has a record of 16-7 this season and an ERA of 2.56. For the year, he has made 31 starts, and opponents are batting .189 vs. Wheeler this season. His WHIP for the season is .96. Wheeler has made 15 starts on the road, going 6-4 with a 3.43 ERA.
Washington has been a solid run line bet this season, going 88-72 overall. Their scoring margin is -0.6 runs per game, and they have been a better bet on the road, going 46-35 vs. the run line. They have a losing scoring margin both at home (-0.5) and on the road (-0.8).
Left-hander MacKenzie Gore gets the start for the Nationals today vs. the Phillies and comes into the game with a record of 10-12 and an ERA of 4.04. So far this year, he has made 31 starts, and opponents are batting .253 off Gore this season. In his 31 appearances, he has turned in 10 quality starts and is averaging 9.65 strikeouts per nine innings. Gore’s WHIP for the season is 1.45. In his last outing, he went seven innings, giving up just one earned run and picking up the win. Before that, he had given up at least two homers in three straight starts.
Phillies vs. Nationals Pick: Nationals ML +184
Our predicted score for this one is a 5-4 win for the Nationals, and with them being the underdogs at +184, that is the way we recommend playing this one. We do have MacKenzie Gore finishing with six strikeouts, and he is projected to finish with a 3.95 ERA.
As for Zack Wheeler, he is projected to finish with six strikeouts, and we have him going eight innings. However, we actually have him finishing with a higher ERA than Gore at 4.65.
