Padres vs Dodgers Prediction & MLB Odds For Wednesday, September 25th
Wednesday’s Dodgers vs. Padres matchup features Jack Flaherty for Los Angeles and Dylan Cease for the Padres. First pitch from Dodger Stadium is set for 10:10 PM ET. The forecast for the game calls for clear skies and temperatures in the upper 70s.
Los Angeles comes in with a record of 93-64 and is currently on a six-game winning streak. They are favored on the money line tonight, with their odds sitting at -142. The Padres are 91-66 and their five-game winning streak was snapped on Tuesday. San Diego is +120 on the money line for tonight’s game.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Padres 1.5 (-183) | Dodgers -1.5 (+151)
- Total: 7.5
- MoneyLine: Padres +120 | Dodgers -142
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Padres vs. Dodgers Prediction: Moneyline
San Diego picked up a 4-2 road win over the Dodgers in the most recent game of this series. The Padres offense got off to a fast start, scoring two runs in the first and adding two more in the 2nd. On the other side, the Dodgers got on the board with one run in the 4th and added their final run in the 9th.
Michael King only went five innings for the Padres but didn’t give up a run and picked up the win. He finished the game with just three strikeouts and allowed two walks. Robert Suarez got the save. Landon Knack struggled on the mound for the Dodgers, giving up four runs in four innings of work.
Jake Cronenworth and Xander Bogaerts each homered for the Padres, while Will Smith went 2/3 with an RBI for the Dodgers. Teoscar Hernandez also had a two-hit game at the plate.
San Diego is currently 2nd in the NL West, two games behind the Dodgers. The Padres have won five straight games, and they are 91-66 overall. San Diego took the first game of the series vs. the Dodgers, and their overall series record is 29-15-6. This year, they have been good as the road underdog, putting together a mark of 24-16.
At home, the Padres are 45-36 this season, and they have gone 46-30 on the road. San Diego has won four straight games on the road, and they are 60-42 as the favorite this year. Looking at their overall record, the Padres have gone 25-22 in divisional matchups.
Los Angeles is hosting the Padres today with a two-game lead in the NL West. The Dodgers are 93-64 overall and have gone 26-21 against other teams in the division. So far, they have been good at home, going 50-29, and they are above .500 on the road, with a mark of 43-35.
As the favorite, the Dodgers have put together a record of 88-52 this year and 5-12 as the underdog. Their overall series record is 30-16-4, and they have won two straight series.
Los Angeles is looking to bounce back today after dropping the series opener vs. the Padres. Over the last 10 games, the Dodgers are 6-4.
Padres vs. Dodgers Prediction: Over/Under
The Padres are on the road to face the Dodgers in a game with an over/under line of 7.5 runs. This season, their games have averaged 8.8 runs per game, and their over/under record is 80-73. When the line is set at 7.5 runs, their record is 24-25. Overall, 57.3% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs, and their current under streak is at two games.
San Diego comes into today’s game as the top-hitting team in the league, with a team batting average of .265. They are also 8th in the league in scoring at 4.7 runs per game. The Padres have been even better on the road this season, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. As a team, they are also the league’s top home run hitting team, and they have the best slugging percentage in the league.
Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill have been the Padres’ top power threats this season, with Machado leading the team with 29 homers and Merrill right behind him with 24. Machado’s 104 RBIs are also the best mark on the team and 9th in the league. Over his last eight games, Machado has three homers and six RBIs, but his batting average is just .258 over that stretch. Jurickson Profar has also homered three times in his last eight games while hitting .357.
The Dodgers have played in 131 games this season with over/under lines higher than 7.5 runs, which accounts for 83.4% of their games. Their games have averaged a combined 9.4 runs per game, and their over/under record is 87-66 on the season. When the over/under line has been set at 7.5 runs, the over has hit in 14 of their 23 games, and their games have averaged a combined 9 runs per game.
Shohei Ohtani has been on an absolute tear for the Dodgers, going 19/41 in his last 10 games with six homers and 19 RBIs. For the season, he is batting .301 and is 2nd in the league with 123 RBIs. Ohtani’s 53 homers are also the best mark in the MLB this season. Teoscar Hernandez is also a big power threat for the Dodgers, as he is 11th in the league with 31 homers.
As a team, the Dodgers are averaging 5.1 runs per game and have the league’s best OPS and slugging percentage. They are also the top home run hitting team in the league. Not only are they the top home run hitting team in the league, but they also have the best isolated power figure in the league.
Padres vs. Dodgers Prediction: Spread
San Diego is 48-28 vs. the run line on the road, where they have a +1.2 scoring margin. They are 38-17 vs. the run line as an underdog, and their average run margin in winning games is +3.6.
Dylan Cease has been pitching well for the Padres, as he has won each of his last two outings. Most recently, he faced the Astros and picked up the win, going 8 1/3 innings and not giving up a run. In that outing, he only gave up two hits and didn’t issue a walk. Cease finished with five strikeouts. For the season, Cease has made 32 starts, and his record is 14-11. Cease’s ERA for the season is 3.42, along with a WHIP of 1.05. Opponents have a batting average of .194 off Cease this season. He has one complete game shutout and 16 quality starts.
When the Dodgers win, they win big. Their average run margin in victories is +3.8 runs per game. That has helped them to a run line record of 78-79 on the season. They have been a favorite in most games, and their run line record as a favorite is 71-69. They have been a little better at covering the run line on the road, where they are 39-39 compared to 39-40 at home. Their overall run differential is +0.8 runs per game.
Jack Flaherty will be looking to build off his last start, where he faced the Marlins and picked up the win. In that outing, he went six innings, giving up three earned runs on five hits. Looking back further, Flaherty has been pitching well, as he has made 15 quality starts and has a record of 13-7. Flaherty’s ERA for the season is 3.10, along with a WHIP of 1.06. For the year, he has allowed 23 home runs. Flaherty’s strikeout per nine innings figure is 10.83. So far, he has been much better on the road, coming in with a record of 8-3 and an ERA of 3.27 compared to 5-4 with a 3.37 ERA at home.
Padres vs. Dodgers Pick: Dodgers ML -142
Our prediction for this Padres vs. Dodgers matchup is that the Dodgers will pick up a 6-5 win at home. At -142, there is some good value on the Dodgers’ money line, and this is the way we recommend playing this one.
Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Dylan Cease finishing with around six strikeouts compared to Jack Flaherty with five. Flaherty is also predicted to go longer into the game than Cease, but we ultimately have the Dodgers’ bullpen securing the win.
