Brewers vs Pirates Prediction & MLB Odds For Wednesday, September 25th
The money line odds for Wednesday’s matchup between the Brewers and Pirates have the Brewers as the favorite, with their line sitting at -155 compared to the Pirates at +131. This one is getting started at 6:40 PM ET from PNC Park in Pittsburgh, and the over/under line is at 7.5 runs.
Milwaukee is currently on a two-game winning streak and is 90-67 overall, while the Pirates are 73-84 and are 5th in the NL Central. SN PT will be televising this one, and the forecasted temperature in Pittsburgh calls for light rain and 70-degree temperatures. Wednesday’s starting pitching matchup is Freddy Peralta for the Brewers and Luis Ortiz for the Pirates.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Brewers -1.5 (+109) | Pirates 1.5 (-131)
- Total: 7.5
- MoneyLine: Brewers -155 | Pirates +131
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Brewers vs. Pirates Prediction: Moneyline
It was all Milwaukee in the last game of this series, as the Brewers took down the Pirates by a score of 7-2. The Brewers offense only had two more hits than the Pirates and struck out eight times, but still picked up a convincing win. Heading into the game, they were favored at -148 on the money line.
Pittsburgh got on the board first with two runs in the 2nd inning, but the Brewers responded with three runs in the top of the 3rd and added three more in the 7th. As for the Pirates, they didn’t score another run after the 2nd inning.
Tobias Myers only went four innings for the Brewers but gave up just two hits and two earned runs. Hoby Milner got the win out of the bullpen. Bailey Falter had a rough outing for the Pirates, giving up four earned runs in five innings of work.
Milwaukee is on the road today, leading the NL Central by 9.5 games over the Cubs. The Brewers are 90-67 overall and have won two straight games. Their record in the division is 31-19 this season.
At home, the Brewers are 45-33 this season, and they have gone 45-34 on the road. As the favorite, the Brewers are 53-37 this season and 37-30 as the underdog. Milwaukee’s overall series record is 28-18-3, and they have won four straight series on the road.
Pittsburgh is 73-84 overall and trails the Brewers by 17 games in the NL Central. So far, they are 24-26 in divisional games. The Pirates lost the series opener vs. the Brewers and have dropped three straight series overall.
At home, the Pirates are 38-41 this season compared to a 35-43 mark on the road. As the underdog, Pittsburgh is 39-56 this season, and they are 34-28 when favored. Currently, they have dropped seven of their last ten games.
Brewers vs. Pirates Prediction: Over/Under
The Milwaukee Brewers are on the road against the Pittsburgh Pirates today. The over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs. The combined run average for Brewers games this season is 8.8 runs per game. Milwaukee has an over/under record of 80-67 on the season. Their games have averaged an over/under line of 8 runs per game. When the line is set at 7.5 runs, the over/under record is 22-15. Overall, 72.6% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 7.5 runs, and their current over streak is at 2 games.
So far this season, the Brewers have been one of the league’s top offenses, averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 5th in the league. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .249, which is 8th in the league, and have the 3rd best on-base percentage in the league. Milwaukee is also one of the league’s best teams at drawing walks.
Willy Adames has been a big run producer for the Brewers this season, as his 111 RBIs are 4th in the league and lead the team. He also has a team-high 32 homers. Catcher William Contreras is batting .283 and has 92 RBIs, which is 2nd on the team. Over his last seven games, Jackson Chourio is batting .296, while Garrett Mitchell has gone 6/19 in his last six games.
When the Pirates are at home, the over/under line is usually set higher than 7.5 runs. In fact, 72.6% of their games have had higher lines than that this season. Their games have averaged 8.7 runs per game, and their over/under record is 76-79 overall.
Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds have been the Pirates’ top power threats this season, with 21 and 22 homers, respectively. Reynolds is also the team’s leader in RBIs, with 85. Cruz is batting .266 for the season, while Reynolds is hitting .276. Over his last eight games, Cruz has gone 5/20 with two homers, while Billy Cook has also hit two homers in this stretch but is batting just .250.
As a team, the Pirates are 23rd in scoring at 4.1 runs per game. They have been slightly better at home, averaging 4.3 runs per game. Overall, they are just 21st in home runs and have the league’s 16th batting average. Currently, Andrew McCutchen is on a four-game hitting streak, and Joey Bart has hit safely in his last three games.
Brewers vs. Pirates Prediction: Spread
When betting the run line, the Brewers have been a solid play on the road this season, going 44-35. They have covered the run line in five straight road games. As the underdog, they are 44-23 vs. the run line this season. Their average run differential in games they win is +3.6, while it’s -2.9 in games they lose.
Freddy Peralta will be looking to build off his last outing, where he finished with a no-decision. Against the Phillies, he went five innings, giving up just one earned run. Looking back further, Peralta has turned in a solid season, as he has a record of 11-8 and an ERA of 3.69. Opponents are batting .218 off Peralta this season. In his 31 starts, he has pitched 168 1/3 innings and has 11 quality starts. Peralta’s ERA at home is 4.12, compared to 3.73 on the road.
The Pirates have been a solid run line bet this season, going 83-74 overall. They have been even better on the road, going 45-33. They have been a better bet as the underdog, going 59-36. The Pirates have been outscored by an average of 0.5 runs per game this season, with an average run differential of -0.4 on the road and -0.5 at home. In their wins, they have outscored opponents by an average of 3.1 runs per game.
Luis L. Ortiz will be looking to bounce back from his last outing, where he finished with a no-decision. Against the Cardinals, he went six innings, giving up two earned runs, and he gave up two homers in that outing. Looking back further, Ortiz has given up at least one homer in three straight outings. Ortiz has made 14 starts this year, and his ERA is 3.43 with a record of 6-6. So far, he has turned in six quality starts and is averaging 7.13 strikeouts per nine innings. For the season, he has allowed 15 homers. At home, his ERA is 4.14 compared to 3.42 on the road.
Brewers vs. Pirates Pick: Brewers ML -155
Getting the Brewers on the money line at -155 is a great value, as we have them winning this one by a score of 5-4. If you’re looking for a parlay, we would recommend pairing the Brewers with another team, as there isn’t a lot of value in the over/under market.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Freddy Peralta is projected to finish with seven strikeouts, which is the second-best among all starters. As for Luis L. Ortiz, he is projected to finish with five K’s, which has him towards the bottom of the league.
