Mariners vs Astros Prediction & MLB Odds For Monday, September 23rd
Monday’s matchup between the Mariners and Astros is set to get started at 8:10 PM ET from Minute Maid Park in Houston, TX. The Astros are currently 1st in the AL West with a record of 85-71, while the Mariners are 2nd in the division at 80-76.
Seattle comes into the game as the money line underdog (+130), while the Astros are favored at -153. The over/under line is currently at 7.5 runs, and the Mariners are starting Bryce Miller, while Hunter Brown is on the mound for the Astros.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Mariners 1.5 (-170) | Astros -1.5 (+142)
- Total: 7.5
- MoneyLine: Mariners +130 | Astros -153
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Mariners vs. Astros Prediction: Moneyline
Seattle is coming off a game in which they wasted several good performances. In their 6-5 loss to the Rangers, Cal Raleigh went deep, going 1/3, and Dylan Moore scored three runs, going 2/3 with a double. The Mariners also got a good start from Bryan Woo, going six innings and giving up just three earned runs, and they were leading 5-4 when they took him out of the game.
Andres Munoz took the loss out of the bullpen for the Mariners, as Seattle allowed two runs in the bottom of the 9th to blow their lead. Heading into this game, the Mariners were favored at -138 on the money line.
Seattle is 80-76 overall, putting them five games behind the Astros for the AL West lead. They are also in 2nd place in the AL West and have gone 27-19 in divisional games. The Mariners kick off their series vs. the Astros five games behind them.
At home, the Mariners have gone 46-32 this season, and they are 34-44 on the road. As the favorite, the Mariners are 58-48 and 22-28 as the underdog. Seattle’s overall series record is 21-24-4, and they have won two straight series on the road.
The Astros will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Angels with a 9-8 loss. Houston was the heavy favorite at -272 going into the game but needed extra innings to pick up the win. The Astros scored three runs in the 2nd inning but then gave up the lead right away as the Angels scored two in the top of the 3rd.
Spencer Arrighetti put together a good start for the Astros, going six innings and giving up just two runs on five hits. He only had six strikeouts in the outing and took the loss. The Astros’s offense was carried by Alex Bregman, who went 3/4 with a homer and three RBIs.
The Astros host the Mariners today with a five-game lead over them in the AL West. Currently, the Astros are 85-71 overall and have gone 28-21 against their division. Houston won three of four games vs. the Angels in their most recent series.
At home, the Astros are 45-33 this season and have gone 40-38 on the road. As the favorite, the Astros are 66-50 this year and 19-21 as the underdog. So far, they have an overall series record of 27-20-2.
Mariners vs. Astros Prediction: Over/Under
Seattle’s over/under record for the season is 74-73, and the average over/under line for their games is 8 runs. When the line is set at 7.5 runs, their record is 21-23. The Mariners have gone over the total in three straight games, and their combined run average for the season is 7.9 runs per game.
Seattle’s offense has been one of the worst in the league in terms of batting average and strikeouts, but they have done a good job of drawing walks and are 11th in the league in home runs. Overall, they are averaging 4.1 runs per game, and they have been even worse at home, averaging just 3.7 runs per contest. Julio Rodriguez has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 13/34 in his last seven games with three homers.
Cal Raleigh and Luke Raley are the team’s leaders in homers, with 31 and 21, respectively. Raleigh’s 95 RBIs are 14th in the league, and he is batting just .214 for the season. Rodriguez is batting .272 for the season and is 2nd on the team with 63 RBIs.
The Astros have played in games with a combined run average of 8.7 this season, and their over/under record is 64-87. They have played in 122 games with over/under lines set higher than 7.5 runs, which accounts for 78.2% of their games. Their over/under record when the line is set at 7.5 runs is 10-18, and their average over/under line is set at 8 runs. Their current over streak is at three games.
Yordan Alvarez has been a major power threat for the Astros this season, as his 35 homers are 8th in the league and the most on the team. He is also leading the team in RBIs with 86. Alvarez comes into the game with a strong batting average of .308. Jose Altuve has also been a key run producer for the Astros, as he is 4th on the team with 65 RBIs and is batting .295.
Over his last eight games, Kyle Tucker has been swinging a hot bat for the Astros, going 12/26 with three homers. During this stretch, he has also scored eight runs. As a team, the Astros are 3rd in the league in strikeouts and have the 3rd best team batting average in the league.
Mariners vs. Astros Prediction: Spread
Seattle’s run line record is 67-89 on the season, with a run differential of +0.3 runs per game. The Mariners have been a better bet on the run line at home, where they are 33-45, compared to 34-44 on the road. They have covered the run line in two straight games as the underdog, and are 25-25 on the run line in those games, compared to 42-64 as the favorite. Their average run differential in wins is +3.6, compared to -3.1 in losses.
Right-hander Bryce Miller gets the start for the Mariners today as he faces the Astros on the road. He has made 30 starts this season and has a record of 11-8 with a 3.06 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, Miller has a WHIP of .99 and opponents are batting .199 off him this season. In his 30 appearances, he has turned in 17 quality starts. Miller most recently faced the Yankees, where he finished with a no-decision, going six innings and giving up one earned run. He has not lost back-to-back starts since August 6th and 12th.
When the Astros win, they do so by an average of 3.7 runs per game. When they lose, they lose by an average of 3.0 runs per game. Their overall run line record is 81-75, and they are 38-40 against the run line at home. As the favorite, they are 55-61 against the run line, while as the underdog, they are 26-14.
Hunter Brown has made 29 starts for the Astros this season, and he has a record of 11-8 with an ERA of 3.57. In his 30 total appearances, Brown has turned in 18 quality starts. For the season, he has a WHIP of 1.28 and is averaging 9.38 strikeouts per nine innings. Brown most recently faced the Padres, where he finished with a no-decision after giving up two earned runs in six innings of work. Before that, he had gone three straight starts without giving up a homer. Brown has given up a homer in four of his last six outings.
Mariners vs. Astros Pick: Astros ML -153
Our prediction for the Astros vs. Mariners game is that the Astros will pick up a 6-5 win at home. With the money line payout for the Astros sitting at -153, this is the route we recommend going, as we see this being a close game.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Hunter Brown is projected to finish with six strikeouts, which is the second-best among all starters. As for Bryce Miller, he is projected to finish with just four strikeouts, which is the second-lowest.
