Twins vs Red Sox Prediction & MLB Odds For Sunday, September 22nd
Minnesota is favored on the money line today, as they are sitting at -135 compared to the Red Sox at +113. Today’s over/under line is sitting at 7.5 runs, and the game will be televised on BSN.
First pitch from Fenway Park is set for 12:35 PM ET, and the forecast calls for cloudy skies and temperatures in the upper 50s. Nick Pivetta is scheduled to start for the Red Sox, and he is facing a Twins team that is 81-73. Minnesota will send Pablo Lopez to the mound.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Twins -1.5 (+127) | Red Sox 1.5 (-156)
- Total: 7.5
- MoneyLine: Twins -135 | Red Sox +113
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Twins vs. Red Sox Prediction: Moneyline
It was a low-scoring game in the most recent game of this Twins vs Red Sox series. Minnesota went into the matchup as slight favorites at -120 and squeaked out a 4-2 win. The Twins offense only had one more hit than the Red Sox and struck out eight times, but still picked up a win.
David Festa got the start for the Twins, going just five innings while giving up one hit and one earned run. Scott Blewett got the win out of the bullpen, and Griffin Jax got the save. Richard Fitts only went five innings for the Red Sox but didn’t give up a run.
Byron Buxton, Trevor Larnach, Carlos Correa, and Matt Wallner each had two hits for the Twins. Buxton, Royce Lewis, and Wallner each homered. Jarren Duran had a two-hit game for Boston.
With an overall record of 81-73, the Twins are 3rd in the AL Central, trailing the Guardians by eight games. Minnesota took over the 3rd spot in the division by moving a half-game ahead of the Tigers and are 8.5 games behind the Guardians for the division lead. So far, they have gone 29-23 against other teams in the AL Central.
Minnesota has gone 42-33 at home this year, and they are just one game below .500 at 39-40 on the road. The Twins have been good as the favorite this year, going 64-43, and they are 17-30 as the underdog. Currently, they are winning their series vs. the Red Sox and have an overall series record of 26-19-4, but they have dropped two straight series.
Boston is 76-78 overall, and they are 14.5 games behind the Yankees in the AL East. The Red Sox have dropped two straight games, and they lost the series opener vs. the Twins. So far, they are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
At home, the Red Sox are 35-41 this year, and they are 41-37 on the road. As the favorite, Boston has gone 41-35 and 35-43 as the underdog. The Red Sox’ overall series record is 23-20-6, and they have dropped two straight series.
Twins vs. Red Sox Prediction: Over/Under
The Minnesota Twins are on the road today against the Boston Red Sox. The over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs. The combined run average for Twins games this season is 9.1 runs per game. Their over/under record for the season is 77-71. When the over/under line has been set at 7.5 runs, their record is 19-18. Overall, 64.3% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs. Their current under streak is at 2 games.
Carlos Santana has been the Twins’ top power threat this season, as he leads the team with 22 home runs and 65 RBIs. However, he is batting just .238 this season. Ryan Jeffers is also near the top of the Twins’ home run and RBI leaderboards, as he has 20 homers and 62 RBIs, but he is batting just .228. Willi Castro is batting .250 this season and has gone deep 12 times.
Over their last five games, Matt Wallner has gone 7/17 with three RBIs, and Willi Castro has also been swinging a good bat, going 5/17 with a home run and three RBIs. Royce Lewis and Austin Martin are both on three-game hitting streaks.
When the Boston Red Sox play at home, the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, and their games have averaged a combined 9.3 runs per game this season. Their over/under record is 75-71, and the average over/under line for their games is 9 runs. When the line is set at 7.5 runs, their over/under record is 9-12. Overall, 85.1% of their games have had higher over/under lines than today’s line of 7.5 runs, and their games have gone under the total in their last three contests.
As a team, the Red Sox are averaging 4.7 runs per game, which is 9th in the league. They are also among the league leaders in home runs and have the best team BABIP in the league. Boston’s offense has been pretty consistent, averaging 4.8 runs per game on the road and 4.5 runs per game at home.
Rafael Devers has been the team’s top power threat this season, with 28 homers, and his 83 RBIs are the best mark on the team. He comes into the game with a batting average of .272. Jarren Duran is hitting .285 for the season and is 3rd on the team with 21 homers. Over his last eight games, Trevor Story is hitting .321 with two homers.
Twins vs. Red Sox Prediction: Spread
The Twins have been a very average run line team this season, with a 72-82 mark overall. They have been slightly better on the road (40-39) than at home (32-43) and have been a better bet as the underdog (25-22) than as the favorite (47-60). Their average run differential is +0.2 runs per game, and they have a +0.1 run differential on the road and +0.4 at home. Their average run differential in wins is +3.7 runs per game, while it’s -3.6 runs per game in losses.
Pablo López has been pitching well for the Twins, as he has come away with the win in three straight starts. Most recently, he faced the Guardians and finished with a no-decision, giving up two earned runs in 6 1/3 innings of work. Before that outing, he didn’t give up a run in three straight starts. López has a record of 15-8 this season and an ERA of 3.84. Opposing batters are hitting .243 off the right-hander this season. For the year, he has made 30 starts, 18 of which were quality starts.
When the Red Sox win, they win big. Their average run margin in winning games is 3.9 runs per game. However, when they lose, they lose by an average of 3.8 runs per game. They have been a solid team to bet on the run line this season, with a record of 72-82. They have been especially good on the road, going 44-34 vs. the run line. At home, they are just 28-48 vs. the run line.
Sox starter Nick Pivetta has made 24 starts this season and has a record of 5-11. His ERA is 4.37, along with a WHIP of 1.13. Pivetta’s last outing came on September 17th, where he took the loss, going 4 2/3 innings and giving up four earned runs. In that outing, he gave up three homers. Before that, he had turned in three straight quality starts. Pivetta has a BB/9 figure of 2.15 compared to 10.88 strikeouts per nine innings. For the year, he has allowed 28 homers.
Twins vs. Red Sox Pick: Twins ML -135
Our recommendation for this Twins vs. Red Sox matchup is to take the Twins on the money line, with the payout sitting at -135. We actually have the Twins winning this one by a score of 5-4, which would give you a little bit of wiggle room to take the Twins on the run line if you prefer.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Pablo Lopez finishing with six strikeouts, which is good enough for 10th among starters. As for Nick Pivetta, he is projected to finish with six strikeouts, which has him down in 17th.
