Twins vs Red Sox Prediction & MLB Odds For Saturday, September 21st

There appears to be a chance for moderate rain in Boston on Saturday, where the forecasted temperature is 57 degrees. This AL matchup between the Twins and Red Sox has a first pitch set for 4:10 PM ET from Fenway Park in Boston, MA. Minnesota is 81-73, while the Red Sox are 76-78.

The money line odds have the Twins as the favorite, with their line sitting at -137 compared to the Red Sox at +117. Saturday’s over/under line is at 8 runs, and BSN will be televising the game. Kutter Crawford is starting for the Red Sox, and he is facing off against Pablo Lopez for the Twins.

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

• Spread: Twins -1.5 (+123) | Red Sox 1.5 (-148)
• Total: 8
• MoneyLine: Twins -137 | Red Sox +117

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Twins vs. Red Sox Prediction: Moneyline

It was a low-scoring game in the most recent game of this Twins vs Red Sox series. Minnesota went into the matchup as slight favorites at -120 and squeaked out a 4-2 win. The Twins offense only had one more hit than the Red Sox and struck out eight times, but still picked up a win.

David Festa got the start for the Twins, going five innings and giving up just one hit and one earned run. He finished the game with six strikeouts but issued three walks. Scott Blewett came out of the bullpen for the win, and Griffin Jax got the save.

Byron Buxton, Trevor Larnach, Carlos Correa, and Matt Wallner each had two hits for the Twins. Royce Lewis also had a two-hit game and scored a run.

Minnesota is 81-73 overall and is 8.5 games behind the Guardians in the AL Central. The Twins are 29-23 in the AL Central this season. This year, they have gone 42-33 at home compared to 39-40 on the road.

So far, the Twins have been good as the favorite, going 64-43. As the underdog, Minnesota is just 17-30 this season. The Twins’ overall series record is 26-19-4, and they have dropped two straight series.

Boston is 76-78 overall, and they are 14 games behind the Yankees for the AL East lead. The Red Sox have dropped two straight games, and they are 3-7 across their last ten games. So far, they have gone 22-24 in AL East matchups.

At home, the Red Sox are 35-41 this year compared to 41-37 on the road. As the favorite, Boston has gone 41-35 this year and 35-43 as the underdog. The Red Sox have dropped two straight series and have an overall series record of 23-20-6.

Twins vs. Red Sox Prediction: Over/Under

The Minnesota Twins are on the road today against the Boston Red Sox. The O/U line for the game is set at 8 runs. The Twins and their opponents have combined to average 9.1 runs per game this season. Minnesota has gone over the O/U line in 77 of their 148 games this season, and their games have had an average O/U line of 8 runs. When the O/U line has been set at 8 runs, the Twins have gone over 13 times, under 21 times, and pushed 5 times. The under has hit in each of their last two games.

Carlos Santana has been the Twins’ top power threat this season, as he leads the team with 22 home runs and 65 RBIs, but he is batting just .238. Ryan Jeffers is also near the top of the Twins’ home run and RBI leaderboards, with 20 homers and 62 driven in, but he is batting just .228. Willi Castro has been a solid run producer for the Twins, as his 58 RBIs are 3rd on the team, and he comes into the game with a batting average of .250.

Castro has been swinging the bat well of late, going 8/25 in his last eight games, while Santana has gone 7/30 in his last seven games. Byron Buxton has also homered in his last six games, but he is batting just .250 over that stretch. Royce Lewis and Austin Martin are both on three-game hitting streaks.

When the Boston Red Sox play at home, the over/under line is set at 8 runs. Their games have averaged 9.3 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 75-71. This season, the average over/under line for their games is 9 runs, and when the line is set at 8 runs, their over/under record is 13-10-3. The Red Sox have played 105 games with over/under lines set higher than 8 runs, accounting for 68.2% of their games this season. They have played 23 games with over/under lines set lower than 8 runs, accounting for 14.9% of their games. The under has hit in their last three games.

Heading into today’s game, the Red Sox are averaging 4.7 runs per game, which is 10th in the league. Overall, they are batting .252 as a team, and their team on-base percentage of .318 is 5th in the league. Boston has been good at limiting strikeouts this season and have the league’s best team BABIP.

Rafael Devers has been the team’s top run producer this season, with 83 RBIs and 28 homers, which is 2nd on the team and 15th in the league. Devers comes into the game with a batting average of .272. Tyler O’Neill has the most homers on the team (31) but has struggled of late, going just 1/19 in his last five games.

Twins vs. Red Sox Prediction: Spread

Minnesota has been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 72-82 overall. They have been a better bet on the road, where they are 40-39. They have been a better bet as an underdog, going 25-22, compared to 47-60 as a favorite.

Pablo López will be looking to build off his last outing, where he finished with a no-decision. Against the Guardians, he went 6 1/3 innings, giving up two earned runs, and he finished with four strikeouts. Before that outing, he had picked up the win in three straight starts. Lopez’s record for the season is 15-8, and he has an ERA of 3.84. Out of his 30 starts, he has turned in 18 quality starts and is averaging 9.58 strikeouts per nine innings. For the year, he has allowed 23 homers and is averaging just 1.9 walks per nine innings.

The Red Sox have been a very average team against the run line this season, as they have a run line record of 72-82. They have been slightly better on the road, going 44-34 against the run line, compared to 28-48 at home. When they win, they win big, with an average run margin of 3.9 runs per game, but when they lose, they lose by an average of 3.8 runs per game.

Right-hander Kutter Crawford gets the start for the Red Sox today as he faces the Twins at home. Crawford has made 31 starts this season and has a record of 8-15 with a 4.19 ERA. Looking back at his last three outings, Crawford has taken the loss in each one. Most recently, he gave up four earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of work against the Yankees. In that outing, he gave up two homers. Crawford’s WHIP for the season is 1.10, and opponents are batting .217 off him this year. He has made 14 quality starts and is averaging 8.49 strikeouts per nine innings.

Twins vs. Red Sox Pick: Red Sox ML +117

With the Red Sox at +117 on the money line, we see this as a great value pick with the payout. Our model also has the Red Sox coming out on top with a final score of 6-5.

Looking at the starting pitchers, Kutter Crawford is projected to finish with five strikeouts compared to Pablo Lopez at five. However, we have Crawford finishing with a better chance of picking up the win compared to Lopez.