Pirates vs Reds Prediction & MLB Odds For Saturday, September 21st
There appears to be a chance for light rain in Cincinnati on Saturday, where the Reds and Pirates face off at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is set for 1:10 PM ET. SN PT is carrying the game on TV, and the money line odds have the Reds at -122 compared to the Pirates at +103. The over/under line is sitting at 8.5 runs.
Jared Jones is starting for the Pirates, and he will be facing off against Rhett Lowder for the Reds. At 75-80, the Reds are 4th in the NL Central, while the Pirates are 5th with a record of 72-82.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Pirates 1.5 (-196) | Reds -1.5 (+166)
- Total: 8.5
- MoneyLine: Pirates +103 | Reds -122
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Pirates vs. Reds Prediction: Moneyline
Cincinnati cruised to an easy 8-3 win over the Pirates in the most recent game of this series. The Reds had a huge 3rd inning, scoring four of their eight runs. As for the Pirates, they scored their only three runs in the 4th. Heading into the game, the Reds were favored at -128 on the money line.
Pittsburgh got to Reds starter Nick Martinez, who gave up two earned runs in just six innings of work. On the other side, Mitch Keller was tagged for eight runs in just 3 1/3 innings of work for the Pirates. He took the loss in the game.
Tyler Stephenson hit the game’s only home run while going 3/5 with five RBIs and three runs scored. Jonathan India also had a good game at the plate, going 2/4 with an RBI.
Pittsburgh is 72-82 overall and trails the Brewers by 16 games in the NL Central. Currently, they are 5th in the division and are 23-24 against other teams in the NL Central. The Pirates are on the road today, and they are 34-42 on the road this year.
As the underdog, the Pirates are 38-54 this year and 34-28 when favored. Pittsburgh’s overall series record is 19-23-6, and they have dropped two straight series. They are also just 4-6 over their last ten games.
Cincinnati is 75-80 overall, and they trail the Brewers by 13.5 games in the NL Central. So far, they have gone 22-25 against other teams in the NL Central. The Reds are looking to pick up a win today, as they are just 38-41 at home this year.
So far, the Reds have been slightly better on the road, going 37-39. As the favorite, Cincinnati has gone 34-33 and 41-47 as the underdog. Cincinnati’s overall series record is 19-27-3, and they are currently up 1-0 in this series vs. the Pirates.
Pirates vs. Reds Prediction: Over/Under
The Pittsburgh Pirates are on the road against the Cincinnati Reds today, with the over/under line set at 8.5 runs. The combined run average for Pirates games this season is 8.7 runs per game, and their over/under record is 75-77. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 31-23. Overall, 23 of their games have had an over/under line set at 8.5 runs, accounting for 14.9% of their games this season.
So far this season, the Pirates offense has been one of the worst in the league, averaging just 4.1 runs per game (22nd) and are near the bottom of the league in home runs and in team slugging percentage. As a team, they are batting just .236, which is 15th in the league. One bright spot has been the play of Bryan Reynolds, who has a team-high 85 RBIs and is batting .278 for the season.
Oneil Cruz and Bryan De La Cruz are tied for 2nd on the Pirates with 20 homers apiece, but both come into the game struggling at the plate. Bryan De La Cruz is just 2/14 in his last four games, while Oneil Cruz is 3/10 in his last four games. Isiah Kiner-Falefa has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 9/24 in his last six games.
The Cincinnati Reds are at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates today, and the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs. The combined run average for Reds games this season is 8.8 runs per game, and their over/under record is 73-75. The average over/under line for Reds games is 9 runs. When the line is set at 8.5 runs, the over/under record is 19-16. So far this season, 48.4% of Reds games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs. The over has hit in the last two Reds games.
Elly De La Cruz has been on a tear of late for the Reds, as he comes into today’s game on a five-game hitting streak and is batting .260 for the season. De La Cruz’s 24 homers is the best mark on the team, and he is also 2nd on the Reds in RBIs with 70. Spencer Steer and Jeimer Candelario are also tied for 2nd on the team with 20 homers, but both are batting under .230 for the season.
As a team, the Reds are averaging 4.4 runs per game and are 15th in the league in home runs. Overall, they are batting just .233, which is 17th in the league. One thing to note is that they have been striking out at a high rate this season, as their 9 strikeouts per game is 24th in the MLB.
Pirates vs. Reds Prediction: Spread
When betting on the Pirates’ run line, it’s been more profitable to take them as the underdog this season. They are 58-34 against the run line when getting points, compared to 24-38 when laying runs. Pittsburgh’s overall run line record is 82-72, and their average run differential is -0.4 runs per game.
Pittsburgh is sending Jared Jones to the mound today, and he comes in with a record of 6-7 and an ERA of 3.85. Looking back at his last outing, Jones finished with a no-decision, giving up two earned runs in four innings of work. Before that, he had put together a nice outing, going seven innings and giving up just two earned runs. Jones has made 20 starts this year, and opponents are batting .225 off the right-hander. For the season, he has allowed 16 homers and is averaging 9.61 strikeouts per nine innings.
When betting the run line, the Reds have been a better play on the road this season, going 47-29 compared to 37-42 at home. They have a positive run differential on the road, averaging 0.6 more runs per game than their opponents. Overall, the Reds have a run differential of 0.1 runs per game this season.
Rhett Lowder will be making his third start of the season for the Reds, and he will be facing the Pirates at home. Lowder has a win and a loss in his first two outings and is coming off a loss against the Twins, where he gave up three runs in 5 1/3 innings. He has struck out 12 batters in 11 1/3 innings so far this season.
Pirates vs. Reds Pick: Reds ML -122
Our predictions for this Pirates vs. Reds matchup is to take the Reds on the money line at -122. We have the Reds winning this one by a score of 5-4. The payout for the Reds on the money line is a good value, as they are currently sitting at -122.
Looking at some potential player props, we have Jared Jones finishing with just four strikeouts, which is the fifth lowest among all starters today. As for Rhett Lowder, he is projected to finish with five strikeouts, which has him in the middle of the pack.
