Phillies vs Mets Prediction & MLB Odds For Friday, September 20th
At 7:10 PM ET, the Phillies and Mets face off in an NL East matchup. This one is taking place at Citi Field in New York, and the Mets are the slight favorites on the money line (-109). The Phillies are 91-62 and they are 1st in the NL East, while the Mets are 85-68.
David Peterson is starting for the Mets, while the Phillies are sending Cristopher Sanchez to the mound. Philadelphia is currently on a two-game losing streak, while the Mets have won four straight. APLTV is carrying this one on TV.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Phillies 1.5 (-234) | Mets -1.5 (+197)
- Total: 7.5
- MoneyLine: Phillies -108 | Mets -109
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Phillies vs. Mets Prediction: Moneyline
New York cruised to a 10-6 win over the Phillies in the most recent game of this series. The Mets had a huge 4th inning, scoring five of their ten runs. As for the Phillies, they scored three of their six runs in the 7th. Heading into the game, the Mets were favored at -137 on the money line.
Luis Severino pitched well for the Mets in this one, going six innings and striking out seven without giving up a run. He picked up a win in the game, while Taijuan Walker had a rough outing for the Phillies, taking the loss.
At the plate, Trea Turner and Brandon Marsh each homered for the Phillies. Turner, Bryce Harper, and Mark Vientos each had two RBIs. For the Mets, Brandon Nimmo and Jose Iglesias each had two hits and two RBIs.
Philadelphia leads the NL East by six games over the Mets heading into today’s game. The Phillies are 91-62 overall, but they have dropped two straight games. These two losses have come after winning the final game of their previous series. So far, they are 27-19 against other teams in the NL East.
At home, the Phillies have been great this year, going 52-26. On the road, they are just above .500 at 39-36. As the road underdog, the Phillies are 12-14 this year, and they are 78-45 as the favorite. Philadelphia’s overall series record is 25-17-7 this year.
The Mets are 2nd in the NL East, six games behind the Phillies. Overall, the Mets are 85-68 and have won four straight games, and they are 27-19 against other teams in the NL East. New York took the first game of the series vs. the Phillies and have an overall series record of 27-15-8.
At home, the Mets are 44-34 this season and 41-34 on the road. As the favorite, the Mets are 57-37 this season, and they are 28-31 as the underdog. New York’s overall record is good for the 2nd Wild Card spot in the National League, and they are seven games up on the Reds for this spot.
Phillies vs. Mets Prediction: Over/Under
Today’s over/under line for the Phillies-Mets game is set at 7.5 runs, which is below the season average of 8.9 runs per game for these two teams. The Phillies have played 29 games with a line of 7.5 runs, going 13-16 in those contests. Overall, 72.5% of their games have had higher lines than 7.5 runs.
As a team, the Phillies are averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 5th in the league. They have been even better at home, averaging 5 runs per game. Overall, they are the 4th best hitting team in the league, with a combined batting average of .258. The Phillies have been even better of late, with Bryce Harper and Trea Turner both hitting over .320 in their last 10 games.
Heading into the game, Kyle Schwarber is on a four-game hitting streak and is the Phillies’ top power threat, with 35 homers this season, which is 7th in the MLB. He is also 12th in the league with 98 RBIs. Harper is 2nd on the team with 29 homers and is batting .288 for the season.
The New York Mets are playing at home against the Philadelphia Phillies today, with the over/under line set at 7.5 runs. The Mets have been involved in high-scoring games this season, with a combined run average of 9.1 runs per game. Their over/under record for the season is 77-71, and their games have averaged an over/under line of 8 runs. When the line has been set at 7.5 runs, the over/under record is 19-16. Overall, 69.3% of their games have had higher lines than 7.5 runs, and their games have gone over the total in their last three contests.
Heading into today’s game, the Mets are one of the league’s best offenses, averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 4th in the MLB. They have been even better on the road, averaging 4.9 runs per contest. As a team, they are 5th in the league in home runs and have the 8th best team batting average in the league. Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor have been two of the Mets’ top power threats this season, with Alonso leading the team with 34 homers and Lindor sitting 2nd with 31.
Over the past six games, Pete Alonso has gone 9/24 with two homers and six RBIs, while Brandon Nimmo has also gone deep twice in this stretch while batting .300. Francisco Lindor has gone just 3/16 in his last six games. Jose Iglesias comes into the game on a 13-game hitting streak and has gone 11/26 in his last six games.
Phillies vs. Mets Prediction: Spread
When playing on the road, the Phillies have been a solid run line bet this season, going 39-36. They have a run line record of 74-79 overall, with an average run margin of +0.7 runs per game. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.9 runs per game, while it is -3.8 runs per game in their losses. As the favorite, they are 58-65 vs. the run line, while they are 16-14 as the underdog.
Through 29 starts, Cristopher Sánchez has a record of 10-9 and an ERA of 3.24. This season, he has pitched much better at home, coming in with a 7-3 record and 2.23 ERA. On the road, Sánchez is 3-6 with a 5.61 ERA. In his 29 starts, he has two complete games and one shutout to go along with 17 quality starts. Sánchez most recently faced the Mets on September 15th, where he finished with a no-decision, going seven innings and giving up one earned run on six hits. He has not taken a loss in his last three outings.
The Mets have been a solid bet against the run line this season, with a record of 78-75. They have been particularly good on the road, going 42-33 against the run line. Their average run margin is +0.6 runs per game, and they have a run line record of 36-42 at home. Their run line record as the underdog is 35-24.
Left-hander David Peterson gets the start for the Mets today as he faces the Phillies at home. He has made 19 starts this year and has a record of 9-2 with an ERA of 2.85. Peterson’s WHIP for the season is 1.30. In his last outing, he went 7 2/3 innings, giving up just one earned run on six hits. He finished with a no-decision in that outing. Before that, he had won three straight starts. Opponents are batting .235 this season off Peterson. Out of his 19 starts, he has 11 quality starts.
Phillies vs. Mets Pick: Phillies ML -108
Given that the Phillies are predicted to come out on top, we recommend taking them on the money line, where they are currently at -108. Our predicted final score is 6-5 in favor of the Phillies, meaning you could also look to take the over, as the line is sitting at 7.5 runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Christopher Sanchez is projected to finish with six strikeouts, which would have him as the sixth best among today’s starters. As for David Peterson, he is projected to finish with just six strikeouts, which has him as the 13th best.
