Braves vs Marlins Prediction & MLB Odds For Friday, September 20th
At 7:10 PM ET, the Braves and Marlins face off in an NL East matchup. This one is taking place at loanDepot Park in Miami, and the Braves are the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -203 compared to the Marlins at +171. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs.
Charlie Morton is starting for the Braves, and he is facing off against Valente Bellozo for the Marlins. Atlanta is 83-70, while the Marlins are 56-97. Miami has lost two in a row and is 5th in the NL East, while the Braves have won two straight and are 3rd in the division.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Braves -1.5 (-121) | Marlins 1.5 (-101)
- Total: 8.5
- MoneyLine: Braves -203 | Marlins +171
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Braves vs. Marlins Prediction: Moneyline
The Braves’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Reds, closing out their series with a 15-3 win. After allowing one run to the Reds in the bottom of the first, the Braves responded with a three-run 2nd inning. Atlanta really broke things open with a four-run 3rd and added another three runs in the 5th.
Chris Sale got the start for the Braves, going five innings and giving up just two runs on five hits. He only had six strikeouts in the outing and got the win.
Atlanta is 83-70 overall, putting them 3rd in the NL East, eight games behind the Phillies for the division lead. The Braves have won two straight games and went 2-1 in their series vs. the Reds. So far, they are 24-22 in divisional games.
At home, the Braves are 42-33 this season compared to a 41-37 mark on the road. As the favorite, the Braves are 70-52 this season, and they are 13-18 as the underdog. Heading into today’s game, the Braves’ series record is 26-17-7, and they have won two straight as the favorite.
Miami is coming off a game in which they were the heavy underdog and it showed, as they fell 20-4 to the Dodgers. The Marlins scored a run to take the early lead but gave it all right back in the bottom of the first as the Dodgers scored five runs. Los Angeles really broke things open with a seven-run 3rd and added another six runs in the 4th to close things out. Going into the game, the Marlins were at +174 on the money line.
Edward Cabrera got the start for the Marlins and took the loss. He only lasted 2 1/3 innings, giving up seven earned runs. Miami’s offense scored their other three runs on a homer from Griffin Conine but went just 1/9 with runners in scoring position.
Miami is 56-97 overall, putting them 5th in the NL East, 35 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. So far, they have gone just 17-32 in divisional matchups. The Marlins dropped the final two games of their series vs. the Dodgers and are just 2-8 across their last 10 games.
At home, the Marlins are 29-49 this year, and they are 27-48 on the road. As the underdog, the Marlins are 52-83 this year, and they are just 4-14 when favored. Miami’s overall series record is 11-28-9, and they have dropped three straight series.
Braves vs. Marlins Prediction: Over/Under
When the Braves are on the road, their games have averaged 8.2 runs per game this season. Their over/under record is 58-90, and their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 14-26. This season, 30.1% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs or higher.
Marcell Ozuna has been a key part of the Braves’ offense this season, as he is batting .306 with 38 homers and 101 RBIs. His batting average and home run totals are both the best on the team and among the league leaders. Ozuna has also been swinging a hot bat of late, as he comes into the game on a three-game hitting streak. Matt Olson is also a power threat in the lineup, as he has 28 homers and 94 RBIs this season.
Overall, the Braves are averaging 4.4 runs per game, which is 16th in the league. They have been a better offense on the road this season, averaging 4.8 runs per contest. As a team, they are 4th in home runs and have the 6th best isolated power figure in the league.
The Miami Marlins are playing at home against the Atlanta Braves today, with the over/under line set at 8.5 runs. The Marlins have played to an over/under record of 82-66 on the season, with a combined run average of 9.1 runs per game. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 28-24. Miami has seen the over hit in three straight games.
Over his last seven games, Jake Burger has gone 7/26 with two home runs and six RBIs. For the season, he is batting .243 with a team-high 67 RBIs and 27 homers, which is 14th in the league. Jesús Sánchez is also a significant power threat in the lineup, as he is 2nd on the team with 17 homers and has gone deep 62 times this season.
As a team, the Marlins are averaging just 3.8 runs per game, which is 28th in the league. They have been a little better at home, averaging 4.3 runs per contest. Miami’s team batting average is just .242, and they are near the bottom of the league in on-base percentage and walks. Currently, Josh Bell and Otto Lopez are on solid hitting streaks, with Bell at seven games and Lopez at six.
Braves vs. Marlins Prediction: Spread
When the Braves are on the road, they are a solid bet to cover the run line, as they are 42-36 on the run line this season. They have a run line win streak of two games and are 18-13 on the run line as an underdog. Their average run differential on the road is +1.2 runs per game.
Charlie Morton gets the start for the Braves today as he faces the Marlins on the road. He has made 28 starts this season and has a record of 8-8 with an ERA of 4.01. Morton’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.30. In his 28 appearances, he has turned in 12 quality starts and is averaging 9.35 strikeouts per nine innings. Looking back at his recent outings, Morton has finished with a no-decision in each of his last two starts. Most recently, he gave up one earned run in six innings of work vs. the Dodgers. Before that, he had given up at least two homers in three straight starts.
When it comes to the run line, the Marlins have been a better bet on the road than at home this season, as they are 38-37 on the run line away from Miami. They have covered the run line in two straight games overall, but they are just 2-16 on the run line as the favorite this season. Their average run differential in winning games is +2.8, while their average run differential in losing games is -3.9.
Miami is sending Valente Bellozo to the mound today vs. the Braves, and he will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Nationals. In that start, he went 5 1/3 innings, taking the loss while giving up three earned runs, six hits, and one homer. Bellozo has made 11 starts this year and has a record of 2-4 with a 3.70 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, Bellozo has a WHIP of 1.29 and opponents are batting .243 vs. the right-hander. Per nine innings, he is averaging 6.02 strikeouts and 2.93 walks.
Braves vs. Marlins Pick: Marlins ML +171
Getting the Marlins at +171 is a great value pick today, as they are playing at home and we have them winning this one by a score of 5-4. If you’re looking for a parlay, you could also take the over at 8.5 runs, as we have this game finishing with a combined nine runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Charlie Morton finishing with seven strikeouts, which is the third-best among starters today. As for Marlins starter Valente Bellozo, we have him finishing with six K’s, which has him 14th among starters.
