Phillies vs Mets Prediction & MLB Odds For Thursday, September 19th

From Citi Field in New York, we have the Phillies and Mets facing off in an NL East matchup. The Phillies are 91-61 and their money line odds are at +120, while the Mets are 84-68 and they are the betting favorite at -141. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs.

First pitch for this one is set for 7:15 PM ET, and FOX is carrying it on TV. Luis Severino is starting for the Mets, and he is facing off against Taijuan Walker for the Phillies. New York is currently on a three-game winning streak.

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

• Spread: Phillies 1.5 (-179) | Mets -1.5 (+147)
• Total: 8
• MoneyLine: Phillies +120 | Mets -141

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Phillies vs. Mets Prediction: Moneyline

Philadelphia is coming off a game in which they wasted several good performances. In their 2-1 loss to the Brewers, Aaron Nola was excellent on the mound, allowing just one run while pitching seven innings. They also got a big offensive performance from Alec Bohm, going 1/3 with a homer.

Carlos Estévez took the loss out of the bullpen for the Phillies, as Philadelphia allowed a run in the bottom of the 9th to blow their lead. Heading into this game, the Phillies were the slight underdog at -103 on the money line.

With a record of 91-61, the Phillies lead the NL East by seven games over the Mets. This season, the Phillies have gone 27-18 in divisional matchups. They are coming off a series loss, dropping two of three games to the Brewers.

At home, the Phillies have been strong this year, going 52-26. On the road, they are just above .500 at 39-35. As the favorite, the Phillies have gone 78-45 and 13-16 as the underdog. Philadelphia’s overall series record is 25-17-7 this season.

Led by a big game by Luisangel Acuna at the plate, the Mets are coming off a 10-0 win over the Nationals to close out their series. Acuna went 2/4 with two RBIs and a homer. The Mets really broke things open with a nine-run 4th inning. Looking at the betting lines going into the game, the Mets were at -173 at home.

Jose Quintana started for the Athletics, going seven innings and not giving up a run. He also issued just two walks and struck out four batters. New York’s offense was carried by Brandon Nimmo, who went 1/3 with a homer and three RBIs.

The Mets are seven games behind the Phillies in the NL East as they are 84-68 overall. New York has won three straight games and closed out their series vs. the Nationals with a win. So far, they have gone 26-19 in divisional games.

At home, the Mets are 43-34 this season and have gone 41-34 on the road. New York has won three straight games at home, and they are 36-23 as the home favorite this season. As the favorite overall, the Mets are 56-37 and 27-15-8 in series this year.

Phillies vs. Mets Prediction: Over/Under

The Phillies are on the road today to face the Mets, with the over/under line set at 8 runs. The combined run average in their games this season is 8.9 runs, and their over/under record is 70-74. When the line is set at 8 runs, their record is 17-18-2. So far this season, 73 of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 8 runs, which accounts for 48.0% of their games. They are currently on a 2-game under streak.

Philadelphia comes into today’s game as one of the league’s top offenses, averaging 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better at home, putting up 5 runs per contest. Overall, they are the 4th ranked team in terms of batting average and have the 4th best on-base percentage in the league. The Phillies also have the 8th most home runs in the league and have the 2nd best team BABIP in the league.

Over his last 10 games, Bryce Harper has been on fire, going 13/38 with three homers and six RBIs. This has pushed his season average to .288, and he is 2nd on the team with 29 homers. Kyle Schwarber has been a big power threat for the Phillies, as he is 7th in the league with 35 homers and is 10th in the league with 97 RBIs.

When the Mets play at home, the over has been a popular bet, as they have a 14-9-1 over/under record when the line is set at 8 runs. The over has hit in two straight games for the Mets, and their games have averaged a combined 9.1 runs per game this season. Overall, the over/under record for Mets games this season is 76-71, and the average over/under line for their games is set at 8 runs.

Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso have been two of the Mets’ top power threats this season, as they come into the game with 31 and 33 home runs, respectively. Both players also have 86 RBIs, which is the best mark on the team. Lindor is batting .271 for the season, while Alonso is hitting .246. Lindor has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 7/27 with three homers in his last nine games.

As a team, the Mets are 5th in home runs and are 6th in the league in scoring at 4.8 runs per contest. They have been even better on the road, averaging 4.9 runs per game. Overall, they are batting .248, which is 8th in the MLB.

Phillies vs. Mets Prediction: Spread

The Phillies have been a good bet against the run line on the road this season, going 39-35. They have covered the run line in two straight games and are 16-13 as an underdog. Their average run differential on the road is +0.4 runs per game, which is slightly lower than their overall average run differential of +0.8 runs per game.

Taijuan Walker is hoping to pitch better than he did in his last outing, where he gave up two earned runs in three innings of work out of the bullpen. In that outing vs. the Marlins, he gave up a home run. Walker didn’t factor into the decision in that outing or his previous two appearances. Walker’s ERA for the season is 6.29, and he has a record of 3-6. Opponents are batting .300 off Walker this season. He has made 14 starts, two of which were quality starts. Per nine innings, Walker is averaging 6.29 strikeouts and 3.55 walks.

The Mets are 35-42 against the run line at home this season, but they have covered in their last two games at Citi Field. They are 77-75 overall against the run line, with an average run margin of +0.6 runs per game. They have been favored in 93 games this season, going 42-51 against the run line in those contests.

Luis Severino gets the start for the Mets today and comes in with a record of 10-6 and an ERA of 3.77. So far, he has made 29 starts and 13 of them have been quality starts. Severino’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.23. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, giving up three earned runs in six innings of work. Before that, he had gone 7 innings in back-to-back outings and gave up a combined two earned runs in those starts. So far, he has one complete game shutout this season.

Phillies vs. Mets Pick: Phillies ML +120

With the Phillies being predicted to pick up a 6-5 road win over the Mets, we really like the value of getting the Phillies on the money line at +120. We would have thought the payout for the Phillies would have been closer to even, so there is a good amount of value here.

Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Taijuan Walker going seven innings and finishing with five strikeouts. As for Luis Severino, we have him going six innings and also finishing with five K’s.