Red Sox vs Rays Prediction & MLB Odds For Thursday, September 19th

From Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, we have an AL East matchup between the Red Sox and Rays. The Red Sox are favored on the money line, and the odds have them at -106 compared to the Rays at -114. Today’s over/under line is sitting at 7.5 runs.

First pitch for Thursday’s matchup is set for 6:50 PM ET, and the game will be televised on BSSUN. Brayan Bello is starting for the Red Sox, and the Rays are going with Zack Littell. Boston is 76-76, while the Rays are 74-78, and they are 3rd and 4th in the AL East, respectively.

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

• Spread: Red Sox -1.5 (+161) | Rays 1.5 (-206)
• Total: 7.5
• MoneyLine: Red Sox -106 | Rays -114

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Red Sox vs. Rays Prediction: Moneyline

Boston picked up a 2-1 road win over the Rays in the most recent game of this series. The Red Sox offense only had two more hits than the Rays and struck out 14 times, but still picked up the win. Heading into the game, they were at -105 on the money line.

Trevor Story was the difference for the Red Sox, as he homered twice, scored two runs, and finished with two RBIs. Taylor Walls and Josh Lowe each had two hits for the Rays.

Justin Slaten got the win for the Red Sox out of the bullpen, while Kenley Jansen got the save. Drew Rasmussen took the loss for Tampa Bay out of the bullpen.

Boston is at .500 with a record of 76-76 as they are 3rd in the AL East, 13 games behind the Yankees for the division lead. So far, they have gone 22-23 in divisional games. The Red Sox are looking to get back on track, as they have gone just 4-6 over their last 10 games.

At home, the Red Sox are 35-40 this year and have gone 41-36 on the road. As the road favorite, the Red Sox have been good this year, putting together a record of 15-6. For the season, they have been the favorite in 75 of their games, going 41-34 in those games. Their overall record as the underdog is 35-42.

The Rays are two games under .500 at 74-78, and they trail the Yankees by 15 games in the AL East. Currently, they are 4th in the division and have gone 20-25 against other AL East teams. As the Red Sox are two games ahead of the Rays, they are in 3rd place in the division.

At home, the Rays are 38-39 this season and 36-39 on the road. So far, they have been the favorite in 66 games, going 35-31 in those contests. As for their games as the underdog, the Rays are 39-47 this year. Tampa Bay’s overall series record is 22-18-7, and they are 1-1 in their current series vs. the Red Sox. Heading into today’s game, the Rays have gone 4-6 over their last 10 games.

Red Sox vs. Rays Prediction: Over/Under

When the Boston Red Sox are on the road, the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, and their games have averaged 9.4 runs per game this season. Overall, the Red Sox have a 75-69 over/under record, and their games have had an average over/under line of 9 runs. When the line is set at 7.5 runs, their over/under record is 9-12. This season, 129 of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 7.5 runs, which accounts for 84.9% of their games. Only two games have had lower lines than 7.5 runs, making up just 1.3% of their games.

Boston comes into today’s game as one of the best-hitting teams in the league, as they are 5th in batting average and have the best team BABIP in the league. Overall, they are averaging 4.7 runs per game (9th) and are 7th in home runs. One of the things that has really helped their offense is that they are 5th in the league in slugging percentage and have the 5th best OPS in the league.

Over his last eight games, Jarren Duran has gone 9/29, and he is currently 2nd on the team with a batting average of .285. Tyler O’Neill has really struggled of late, going just 3/28 in his last eight games, but he does lead the team with 31 homers.

When the Tampa Bay Rays are at home, the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs. The Rays have played 86 games with higher over/under lines than this one, which is 56.6% of their games. Their games have averaged 8.0 runs per game, and their over/under record is 66-78 overall. When the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, their record is 23-28.

Yandy Diaz has been the Rays’ most consistent hitter this season, batting .282, which is the best mark on the team. He also leads the team with 65 RBIs and has gone deep 14 times. Christopher Morel has really struggled at the plate, hitting just .196, but he does have 21 homers, which is the most on the team. Brandon Lowe is 2nd on the team in homers (19) and is batting .244 for the season.

Brandon Lowe and Jonathan Aranda have both gone deep twice in their last seven games, with Lowe batting .241 in that stretch and Aranda hitting .318. As a team, the Rays are batting just .231 and are averaging only 3.8 runs per contest.

Red Sox vs. Rays Prediction: Spread

When the Red Sox are on the road, they have been a profitable team to bet on the run line, going 44-33. Their average run margin on the road is +0.5, and they have a run line record of 44-33 when they are the underdog.

Brayan Bello gets the start for the Red Sox today as he faces the Rays on the road. He has made 28 starts this season and has a record of 14-7 with an ERA of 4.60. Bello’s WHIP for the season is 1.38, and he has turned in 10 quality starts. In his last outing, Bello went 5 1/3 innings, giving up one earned run on four hits. He picked up the win in that outing. Before that, he had given up at least four earned runs in three straight starts. Bello has been much better on the road, coming in with a record of 8-3 and an ERA of 4.64 compared to 6-4 with a 5.95 ERA at home.

When the Rays win, they win big, with an average run margin of +2.8 runs per game. That’s why they have a winning record on the run line overall (78-74) and on the road (43-32). They’ve been a better bet as an underdog (54-32) than as a favorite (24-42).

Tampa Bay is sending Zack Littell to the mound today vs. the Red Sox, and he will be looking to build off his last outing, where he didn’t give up a run. In that outing vs. the Guardians, he went six innings and gave up just five hits. Littell has made 27 starts this year and has a record of 7-9 with a 3.73 ERA. Looking at his home/away splits, he has an ERA of 5.73 on the road compared to 3.3 at home. Littell has given up a total of 21 home runs this year.

Red Sox vs. Rays Pick: Red Sox ML -106

There is a lot of value in taking the Red Sox on the money line at -106, as we have them winning this game by a score of 6-4. Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Brayan Bello finishing with around six strikeouts, which is higher than Zack Littell, who we have finishing with four.

Offensively, the Red Sox are our top team in terms of projected home runs, and they are also expected to finish with 11 strikeouts, which is the second highest in the league. As for the Rays, they are projected to finish with just four runs, and they are the lowest in terms of home runs.