Astros vs Padres Prediction & MLB Odds For Tuesday, September 17th
From PETCO Park in San Diego, we have an interleague matchup between the Astros and Padres. The Astros are 1st in the AL West with a record of 81-69, while the Padres are 2nd in the NL West at 86-65. Houston is currently favored on the money line, and the over/under line is at 7.5 runs.
First pitch for Tuesday’s matchup is set for 9:40 PM ET, and the forecast calls for clear skies and temperatures in the upper 60s. Hunter Brown is slated to start for the Astros, while the Padres are going with Michael King. San Diego is on a four-game winning streak.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Astros -1.5 (+160) | Padres 1.5 (-203)
- Total: 7.5
- MoneyLine: Astros -103 | Padres -114
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Astros vs. Padres Prediction: Moneyline
San Diego picked up a 3-1 win over the Astros in the most recent game of this series. The Padres offense only had two more hits than the Astros and struck out six times, but still picked up a win thanks to a good outing from Yu Darvish. Darvish went six innings, gave up just three hits, and didn’t give up a run as he picked up a win in the game.
Houston’s only run came in the 8th inning, as the Astros wasted a good outing from Spencer Arrighetti. Arrighetti gave up just two earned runs in five innings of work but took the loss in the game.
Jurickson Profar and Jackson Merrill each homered for the Padres, while Manny Machado went 2/4 with an RBI. Luis Arraez also had a two-hit game and scored a run for San Diego’s offense.
The Astros are 81-69 overall this season, good for a four-game lead over the Mariners in the AL West. So far, they have gone 25-20 against other teams in their division. Houston is on a four-game winning streak when favored and have an overall record of 63-49 as the favorite this year.
At home, the Astros have gone 42-32 this year, and they are just above .500 at 39-37 on the road. Houston lost the first game of this series vs. the Padres and are 26-20-2 in series this year. Looking at their overall record, the Astros are 6-4 over their last 10 games.
With an overall record of 86-65, the Padres are 3.5 games behind the Dodgers for the NL West lead. San Diego has won four straight games, and they are 24-22 against other teams in the NL West. The Padres took the first game of the series vs. the Astros and have an overall series record of 29-15-6.
At home, the Padres are 41-35 this season and 45-30 on the road. San Diego has been good as the favorite this year, going 56-41, and they are 30-24 as the underdog. Looking at their overall mark, the Padres have gone 6-4 over their last 10 games.
Astros vs. Padres Prediction: Over/Under
The Houston Astros are on the road to face the San Diego Padres today, with an over/under line of 7.5 runs. The combined run average in their games this season is 8.6, and their over/under record is 61-84. The average over/under line for their games is 9 runs, and when the line is set at 7.5 runs, their over/under record is 9-17. So far this season, 119 of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 7.5 runs, accounting for 79.3% of their games, while only 5 games have had lower lines, making up 3.3% of their games.
Yordan Alvarez has been the Astros’ top hitter this season, as he is batting .308 and has gone deep 34 times, which is good for 8th in the league. Alvarez also leads the team with 85 RBIs. Jose Altuve is also having a strong season, as he is batting .302 and has 19 homers. Alex Bregman has 23 homers but is batting just .254 and has struggled of late, going 6/34 in his last eight games.
As a team, the Astros are 3rd in batting average and 7th in on-base percentage. They are also one of the league’s top home run hitting teams. Overall, they are averaging 4.6 runs per game and have been even better at home, averaging 4.9 runs per contest.
The Padres have played in 57.6% of their games this season with an over/under line set at 7.5 runs, and their over/under record in those games is 24-24. Their games have averaged 8.9 runs per game this season, and their over/under record for the season is 80-68. The over/under line for today’s game against the Astros is set at 7.5 runs, and their over/under record when the line is set at 7.5 runs is 24-24. The over has hit in two straight games for the Padres.
San Diego comes into the game as the league’s top hitting team, batting a collective .266. They are also one of the league’s top scoring offenses, averaging 4.8 runs per game. The Padres have been even better on the road, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. As a team, they are also the league’s best team at avoiding strikeouts.
Over the team’s last seven games, Luis Arraez has been on fire, going 16/32, and he is also on a 14-game hitting streak. For the season, he is batting .323 and is 2nd on the team in RBIs. Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill are the Padres’ top power threats, with Machado leading the team with 26 homers and Merrill sitting 2nd with 24.
Astros vs. Padres Prediction: Spread
When the Astros are on the road, they are 42-34 against the run line, and their average run margin is +0.2 runs per game. They have covered the run line in four straight games as the favorite, and they are 25-13 against the run line when they are the underdog.
Hunter Brown will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing as he gets the start for the Astros today. The right-hander’s most recent outing came on September 11th, where he took the loss and gave up five earned runs in five innings of work. Looking back over his last four starts, Brown has finished with a no-decision in three straight outings. Brown has a record of 11-8 this season and an ERA of 3.59. Opposing batters are hitting .236 off Brown this season. He has made 28 starts, 17 of which were quality starts.
When betting the run line with the Padres, it’s been much more profitable to take them on the road, where they are 47-28 against the run line. At home, they are just 30-46. They are 37-17 against the run line as the underdog, compared to 40-57 as the favorite. Their average run differential in wins is +3.7, while it’s -3.5 in losses.
Right-hander Michael King gets the start for the Padres today and will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Mariners. In that start, he took the loss, going five innings and giving up three earned runs, including a homer. Before that outing, he had pitched well, giving up a combined two earned runs in his previous two starts. King’s ERA for the season is 3.06, along with a record of 12-9. Opponents have a batting average of .219 vs. King this season. He has made 28 starts, 13 of which were quality starts, and his WHIP for the season is 1.21.
Astros vs. Padres Pick: Padres ML -114
Our prediction for this Astros vs. Padres matchup is to take the Padres on the money line at -114. We have the Padres winning this one by a final score of 6-5. If you’re looking for an over/under prediction, we would take the over at 7.5 runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Michael King of the Padres finishing with five strikeouts, while Hunter Brown of the Astros is predicted to finish with five as well. However, King has a better chance of picking up a win, as he ranks seventh in our projections, compared to Brown at 10th.
