Mets vs Phillies Prediction & MLB Odds For Saturday, September 14th

At 4:05 PM ET, the Mets and Phillies square off in an NL East matchup. This one is being played at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia and the Mets are favored on the money line, with their payout sitting at -111 compared to the Phillies at -108. The over/under line is sitting at 9 runs.

Luis Severino will start for the Mets, and he is facing off against Kolby Allard. The Phillies are 1st in the NL East, while the Mets are 2nd. SNY will be televising this game.

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

• Spread: Mets -1.5 (+146) | Phillies 1.5 (-180)
• Total: 9
• MoneyLine: Mets -111 | Phillies -108

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Mets vs. Phillies Prediction: Moneyline

New York cruised to an easy 11-3 win over the Phillies in the most recent game of this series. The Mets had a huge 5th inning, scoring six of their eleven runs. As for the Phillies, they scored their only three runs in the 5th. Heading into the game, the Mets were at +134 on the money line.

Jose Quintana pitched well for the Mets in this one, going seven innings and striking out four without giving up a run. He picked up a win in the game, while Aaron Nola had a rough outing for the Phillies, giving up six runs in just 4 1/3 innings of work.

Harrison Bader and Francisco Alvarez each homered for the Mets, while Pete Alonso went 2/4 with three RBIs. Brandon Nimmo also had a two-hit game and scored three times for New York’s offense.

The Mets are 81-66 overall and trail the Phillies by seven games in the NL East. New York has won two straight games, and they are 8-2 over their last 10 games, which includes taking the series opener vs. the Phillies. This year, they have gone 23-17 against other teams in the NL East.

At home, the Mets have gone 40-34 this year, and they are 41-32 on the road. As the favorite, the Mets are 53-37 this year and 28-29 as the underdog. New York has an overall series record of 25-16-7, and they have won five straight series overall, including three straight on the road.

With an overall record of 88-59, the Phillies lead the NL East by seven games over the Mets. The Phillies are 25-18 in divisional matchups this season. At home, the Phillies have gone 50-26 while posting a 38-33 mark on the road. So far, the Phillies have been really good as the favorite, going 75-44. As the underdog, the Phillies are 13-15 this year.

Philadelphia has been playing well as of late, going 7-3 across their last ten games. The Phillies will be looking to bounce back today after dropping the series opener vs. the Mets. This season, the Phillies’ overall series record is 26-15-6.

Mets vs. Phillies Prediction: Over/Under

The Mets are on the road in Philadelphia today, where the over/under line is set at 9 runs. The Mets and their opponents have combined to average 9.1 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 73-69. The average over/under line for their games is 8 runs, and their over/under record when the line is set at 9 runs is 5-10-4. The over has hit in two straight games for the Mets.

Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso have been two of the Mets’ top power threats this season, with Lindor’s 31 homers being 2nd on the team and Alonso’s 32 leading the Mets’ offense. Lindor is also 15th in the league with 86 RBIs. Lindor comes into the game on a three-game hitting streak, while Jose Iglesias has gone 6/17 in his last five games and is also on a seven-game hitting streak.

Overall, the Mets are 6th in the league at 4.8 runs per game and have been even better on the road, averaging 5 runs per contest. As a team, they are 5th in home runs and have the 11th best team batting average in the league.

The Phillies are playing host to the Mets today, and the over/under line for the game is set at 9 runs. This season, the Phillies have played to an over/under record of 69-71, with an average combined run average of 9.0 runs per game. When the over/under line is set at 9 runs, the Phillies have played to a record of 5-13-1, and only 15.6% of their games have had over/under lines set at 9 runs or higher.

As a team, the Phillies are 4th in the league in scoring at 4.9 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5 runs per contest. Overall, they are one of the league’s top power-hitting teams, as they are 8th in home runs and have the 4th best team batting average in the MLB. The Phillies also do a good job of avoiding strikeouts, as they have the 12th fewest strikeouts in the league.

Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber have been two of the team’s top power threats this season, with Harper having 26 homers and Schwarber leading the Phillies with 35 homers. Harper is also batting .289 and comes into the game on a five-game hitting streak, during which he has gone 8/19. Schwarber has also been hot of late, going 4/11 in his last four games with two homers.

Mets vs. Phillies Prediction: Spread

When betting the run line on the Mets, it’s been a good idea to take them on the road, as they are 41-32 against the run line in those games. They are currently on a two-game run line win streak away from home. Their average run margin for the season is +0.5 runs per game, and they have a 74-73 run line record overall. They have been a better bet as the underdog, going 34-23 against the run line in those games.

Luis Severino gets the start for the Mets today as he faces the Phillies on the road. So far this season, he has made 28 starts and has a record of 10-6 with a 3.74 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting .232 off Severino this season, and he has a WHIP of 1.25. In his 28 appearances, Severino has turned in 12 quality starts and is averaging 7.81 strikeouts per nine innings. The right-hander’s last outing came on September 8th, where he finished with a no-decision, going 6 2/3 innings and giving up one earned run on eight hits. Before that, he had won two straight starts.

When the Phillies win, they win big. They have an average run differential of +3.9 runs per game in their victories, and they have a run line record of 37-34 on the road, where they have an average run differential of +0.5 runs per game. Overall, they are 71-76 against the run line this season, including a 34-42 mark at home, where their average run differential is +1.1 runs per game. They are 56-63 against the run line as the favorite and 15-13 as the underdog.

For the Phillies, Kolby Allard is getting the start at home against the Mets. Allard has picked up wins in each of his first two starts, and his most recent outing was a 5-inning start in which he struck out 5 and gave up 2 earned runs.

Mets vs. Phillies Pick: Phillies ML -108

There are a few different ways you could look to bet on this Mets vs. Phillies game, but we really like the Phillies to pick up the win. And with the money line sitting at -108, we see this as a great value pick.

Offensively, we have the Phillies finishing with 8 hits compared to the Mets with 5. And in terms of home runs, the Mets are projected to hit two compared to the Phillies with one.