Marlins vs Nationals Prediction & MLB Odds For Thursday, September 12th

The Nationals head into Thursday’s matchup vs. the Marlins looking to pick up a win and move above .500 for the season. However, they are heavy money line favorites, with their odds sitting at -182 compared to the Marlins at +152. The over/under line is at 9 runs, and the game will be televised on BSFL.

First pitch from Nationals Park is set for 6:45 PM ET, where the forecast calls for temperatures in the low 80s and partly cloudy skies. Miami will be looking to end a three-game losing streak, but they are 5th in the NL East, while the Nationals are 4th.

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

• Spread: Marlins 1.5 (-138) | Nationals -1.5 (+113)
• Total: 9
• MoneyLine: Marlins +152 | Nationals -182

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Marlins vs. Nationals Prediction: Moneyline

The Marlins will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Pirates with a 3-1 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 9th inning before the Pirates scored three runs in the bottom of the 9th. Miami was the +130 underdog on the road going into the game.

Jonathan Bermudez had a good start for the Marlins, going two innings and not giving up a run. However, the Miami offense really struggled after Cristian Pache’s hot start, going 2/4 with a run scored. The Marlins also wasted a big game from Pache, who went 2/4 with a double and a run scored.

Miami is 5th in the NL East at 34 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. Overall, they are 54-92 and have dropped three straight games. The Marlins have really struggled against other NL East teams, going 16-29 this year.

At home, the Marlins are just 28-47 while posting a 26-45 mark on the road. As the underdog, the Marlins are 50-78 this year, and they have lost three straight games as the underdog overall. Miami’s overall series record is 11-26-9, and they were swept by the Pirates in their most recent series.

The Nationals are coming off a big 5-1 win over the Braves to close out their series. Washington was the +147 underdog at home going into this matchup. Things really turned in their favor with a three-run 3rd inning, and they added another two runs in the 4th to put things out of reach. The Nationals also went on to close things out with a 8th inning run.

Jake Irvin put together a good start for the Nationals, going six innings and giving up just one run on two hits. He only had five strikeouts in the outing and got the win.

With an overall record of 65-80, the Nationals are 4th in the NL East, trailing the Phillies by 22.5 games. So far, they are 20-22 in divisional matchups. Washington is just coming off a series split with the Braves, and they are 4-6 over their last 10 games.

At home, the Nationals are 33-38 this season, and they are 32-42 on the road. As the underdog, Washington has gone 53-68 compared to an even 12-12 mark as the favorite. So far this year, their overall series record is 17-23-6.

Marlins vs. Nationals Prediction: Over/Under

The Miami Marlins are on the road against the Washington Nationals today. The O/U line for the game is set at 9 runs, which is exactly the combined run average for the Marlins’ games this season. Miami has played to the over in 79 of their 142 games this season, and their average O/U line for the year is 8 runs. When the O/U line has been set at 9 runs, the Marlins have gone 4-13-1 to the over. Only 6.2% of their games have had a higher O/U line than 9 runs.

For the season, the Marlins are averaging just 3.8 runs per game, which is 29th in the league. They have been a bit better at home, averaging 4.2 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .241, which is 13th in the league, and have the 22nd home run total in the league. Miami is also one of the league’s worst teams in terms of walks and on-base percentage.

Jake Burger is batting just .239 this season, but he does lead the team with 25 homers and 61 RBIs. Otto Lopez has been hot of late, going 8/20 in his last five games, and is currently on a six-game hitting streak. Josh Bell has also been swinging the bat well, as he is on a seven-game hitting streak.

Washington is home against Miami today, and the over/under line is set at 9 runs. The Nationals have played to a combined average of 9.0 runs per game this season, and their overall over/under record is 70-70. When the line has been set at 9 runs, their record is 14-18-3. So far this season, 15.2% of their games have had over/under lines set at 9 runs.

As a team, the Nationals are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 21st in the league. They have been a little better on the road, averaging 4.3 runs per game. Washington’s offense has been good at avoiding strikeouts, but they are just 23rd in home runs and have the league’s 11th best batting average. Currently, they are 19th in slugging percentage and OPS.

CJ Abrams has gone deep 20 times this season, but he is hitting just .239 for the season and has a batting average of just .161 over his last eight games. Luis Garcia Jr. is batting .284 for the season and has gone deep 15 times. He is also 2nd on the team with 63 RBIs. The Nationals will be looking for both players to get back on track after some recent struggles.

Marlins vs. Nationals Prediction: Spread

When the Marlins win, they win big, with an average run margin of +2.8 runs per game. But when they lose, they lose big, with an average run margin of -3.8 runs per game. Overall, they are 68-78 against the run line this season, with a -1.3 run differential per game.

Miami is sending right-hander Darren McCaughan to the mound today vs. the Nationals. He has made two starts and seven appearances this year and has a record of 0-0 with a 7.40 ERA. McCaughan’s WHIP for the season is 1.85, and opponents are batting .333 off him this year. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, giving up two earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of work. McCaughan has finished with a no-decision in each of his last four outings. Per nine innings, he is averaging 5.18 strikeouts and 3.7 walks.

When the Nationals win, they win big, as their average run margin in victories is +3.4 runs per game. However, they have struggled to cover the run line when favored, going just 11-13. Overall, they are 81-64 against the run line this season, including a 70-51 mark as the underdog.

The Nationals are sending left-hander Mitchell Parker to the mound today vs. the Marlins. Parker has made 26 starts this season and has a record of 7-9 with an ERA of 4.43. So far, he has turned in 10 quality starts and is averaging 8.07 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, Parker finished with a no-decision, giving up four earned runs in 3 1/3 innings of work. Before that, he had taken the loss in three straight outings. The left-hander has been much better at home, coming in with a 3.76 ERA compared to 11.06 on the road.

Marlins vs. Nationals Pick: Over 9 Runs -102

Given the money line odds, we would recommend taking the Nationals to win at -182. However, we actually like the over in this matchup, with the line sitting at 9 runs. Our predicted final score is 6-4 in favor of the Nationals.

Looking at the starting pitchers, Mitchell Parker is not a great option today, as he ranks near the bottom in terms of projected innings and strikeouts. As for the Marlins, they are projected to finish with just eight hits compared to the Nationals, who are projected to finish with eight as well.