Lutz’s Locks For Week 4 Of The NFL

Texans vs Colts Prediction & NFL Odds For Week 1

ByUSA Wager

The Texans are favored on the road in their week one matchup against the Colts, with the game kicking off at 1:00 ET on Sunday, September 8th at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Texans’ money line is -140, and they are -2.5 point favorites. On the money line, the Colts are sitting at +118. CBS is set to broadcast this AFC South matchup, with the over/under line currently at 49 points.

Prediction at a Glance for Colts vs Texans

  • We have the Texans winning this one by a score of 23 to 22
  • Even though we like the Texans to win, our ATS pick is to take the Colts at +2.5
  • We see this game finishing below the line of 49 points

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

  • Spread: Texans -2.5 | Colts +2.5
  • Total: 49
  • MoneyLine: Texans -140 | Colts +118

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Texans vs. Colts Prediction: MoneyLine

The Texans’ running game struggled last season, as they finished 28th in rushing yards, averaging just 92.7 yards per game. However, they were more successful in the passing game, ranking 8th in passing yards per game with 243.6. Houston averaged 22.7 points per game, placing them 13th in the league, and they were 13th in overall offensive power rankings.

At home, the Texans were the 8th highest-scoring offense in the league, averaging 26.6 points per game, but on the road, they dropped to 21st, scoring only 18.4 points per game. They also ranked 12th in red zone attempts and 17th in third down conversion percentage.

On the road, the Texans scored 18.4 points per game, ranking 21st in the league. However, at home, they were the 8th best-scoring offense, averaging 26.6 points per game. Overall, their season average of 22.7 points per game placed them 13th in the NFL. Houston’s offense was 13th in the league in terms of power ranking.

Per game, the Texans averaged 336.3 yards, ranking 15th in the league. They were 12th in yards per play, averaging 5.5 yards per play. Houston had the 6th best passing yards per attempt figure but struggled to run the ball, finishing 28th in rushing yards and 29th in rushing yards per attempt.

  • Free MoneyLine Prediction Texans -140 (Bet Now)

Texans vs. Colts Prediction: Total

The Texans’ defense was 11th in points allowed last season, giving up 21.1 points per game, and they finished 19th in our power rankings. They were tough against the run, allowing the 2nd fewest rushing yards per attempt. Houston’s defense also excelled in creating turnovers, ranking 7th in takeaways and 3rd in turnover differential.

Despite allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 67.6% of their passes (27th), the Texans gave up the fewest passing touchdowns in the league. They also defended well on third downs, holding opponents to a 35.7% conversion rate.

The Texans’ defense was 11th in points allowed last season, giving up 21.1 points per game. They were a top unit in terms of takeaways, ranking 7th with 24, and excelled in turnover differential, where they were 3rd in the NFL. Houston also forced the most passing touchdowns in the league.

Although they were 19th in the NFL in terms of yards allowed, the Texans were tough in the red zone, allowing a 51.9% scoring percentage. They also allowed the 10th fewest rushing touchdowns and were tough against the run, giving up just 3.5 yards per attempt, the 2nd best mark in the league.

  • Free MoneyLine Prediction UNDER 49 (Bet Now)

Texans vs. Colts Prediction: Spread

The Texans are coming off a season in which they made it to the Divisional Round of the playoffs, but they were beaten by the Ravens 34-10. Houston finished the regular season with a 10-7 record, placing them 1st in the AFC South. They were strong at home with a 7-3 record, but just below .500 on the road at 4-5. Against teams with above .500 records, they went 7-5, and against below .500 teams, they went 4-3.

Their playoff run was impressive, considering they were the 4th place team in the AFC. The Texans had a good ATS record of 10-9, going 7-4 as the underdog and 3-5 as the favorite. Their over/under record was 7-11-1, with their games averaging 43.8 points per game.

  • Through their last three games, the Texans have a record of 2-1. Against the spread, the team is 2-1 in these same games while going 1-1-1 on the over/under.
  • Houston has played well in their previous 5 road games, going 3-2 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 17 points per game while allowing 25. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-2.

The Texans’ playoff run ended in the AFC Divisional round with a 34-10 loss to the Ravens. Houston finished the 2023 regular season with a 10-7 record, placing them 1st in the AFC South, where they went 4-2 against division rivals. Despite their strong season, they ended up 4th in the AFC. When facing above .500 teams, they went 7-5, and against below .500 teams, they went 4-3.

Houston’s games had an average combined scoring of 43.8 points last season, which was 18th in the league. Their over/under record was 7-11-1. Against the spread, the Texans were 10-9, with a 7-4 mark as the underdog and 3-5 when favored.

  • Indianapolis has put together a record of 2-1 over their past three games. This includes going 1-2 vs. the spread and posting an over-under mark of 2-1.
  • Across their last five home contests, Indianapolis has been good against the spread posting a mark of 3-2. Their overall mark in these games was 3-2, while averaging 18 points per game.
  • Free Spread Prediction Colts +2.5 (Bet Now)

Texans vs. Colts Pick: Colts +2.5

For this week one matchup between the Texans and Colts, we have the Texans coming out on top by a score of 24-23. With this projection, we are looking to take the Colts to cover as home underdogs. Right now, the point spread has the Colts at +2.5, making them our pick vs. the spread.

As for the over/under, with the line sitting at 49 points, we have a slight lean towards the under, with our projected combined score coming in at 47 points.

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