Lutz’s Locks For Week 4 Of The NFL

Patriots vs Bengals Prediction & NFL Odds For Week 1

ByUSA Wager

With the Bengals favored at -431 on the money line, the Patriots are +332 as they head to Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati for a week one matchup. The Bengals are -8.5 point favorites on the point spread. This one kicks off at 1:00 ET and is being televised on CBS. The over/under line is set at 40.5 points.

Prediction at a Glance for Bengals vs Patriots

  • We have the Bengals winning this one by a score of 24 to 17
  • Even though we like the Bengals to win, our ATS pick is to take the Patriots at +8.5
  • Look for this game to go over the line of 40.5 points

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

  • Spread: Patriots +8.5 | Bengals -8.5
  • Total: 40.5
  • MoneyLine: Patriots +332 | Bengals -431

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Patriots vs. Bengals Prediction: MoneyLine

New England’s offense was one of the worst in the league last season, finishing 31st in both scoring and yards, averaging just 13.9 points per game. The Patriots were also 32nd in home scoring, averaging only 12.1 points per game. On the road, they were 25th, averaging 15.9 points per game. The Patriots struggled to move the ball, ranking 30th in yards per game with 276.2.

One of the reasons for their struggles was their inability to sustain drives, as they ranked 27th in third-down conversion percentage, converting only 30.2% of their third downs. In the passing game, the Patriots were 28th in yards, averaging 180.5 yards per game. They also had a tough time running the ball, averaging just 95.7 rushing yards per game.

At home, the Patriots managed just 12.1 points per game, ranking dead last in the league. Their overall average of 13.9 points per game was also 31st in the NFL. New England’s struggles were largely due to their inability to move the ball, as they ranked 30th in yards per game (276.2) and 29th in yards per play (4.6). They also had the 3rd best red zone conversion percentage last season.

On the season, the Patriots averaged only 180.5 passing yards per game, ranking 28th in the league. Their running game was slightly better, averaging 95.7 yards per game (25th) on 24.4 attempts per game (26th). New England also had a hard time sustaining drives, finishing 27th in third-down conversion percentage.

  • Free MoneyLine Prediction Bengals -431 (Bet Now)

Patriots vs. Bengals Prediction: Total

New England’s defense was tough against the run last season, giving up just 3.3 yards per attempt, the best mark in the league. They were also one of the better units in terms of yards allowed, ranking 6th in the NFL, giving up 301.6 yards per game. Despite allowing 21.5 points per game (14th), the Patriots were 4th in the league in defensive power ranking.

The Patriots’ secondary was strong, giving up the 3rd fewest passing touchdowns in the league. Opposing quarterbacks completed 64.3% of their passes against New England (13th) and had a collective passer rating of 85.15 (11th).

New England’s defense was tough against the run, allowing just 3.3 yards per attempt, the best mark in the league last season. They were also the 4th best unit in terms of yards allowed, giving up only 301.6 yards per game. Despite this, they were only 14th in points allowed, giving up 21.5 per contest.

The Patriots’ pass defense was one of the better ones in the league, giving up 208.4 passing yards per game and allowing the 3rd fewest passing touchdowns. They also held opposing quarterbacks to a collective passer rating of 85.15, ranking 11th in the league.

  • Free Total Prediction OVER 40.5 (Bet Now)

Patriots vs. Bengals Prediction: Spread

The Patriots are coming off a season in which they won just four games, going 4-13 overall. All four of their wins came against AFC opponents, as they were winless in non-conference games (0-5). New England struggled at home, going 1-8 compared to 3-5 on the road. Against teams within the AFC-East, the Patriots went 2-4.

New England’s ATS record for the season was 5-11-1. As underdogs, they went 4-7-1 ATS, while they were 1-4 ATS as the favorite. When favored, the Patriots went 1-4 straight-up, and as underdogs, they went 3-9. The Patriots’ over/under record was 7-10, with their games averaging 35.4 points per game.

  • Across New England’s last three regular season games, their record sits at 1-2. This also includes going 2-1 ATS, and posting an over-under record of 2-1.
  • In their last five road games, New England has averaged 18 points per game while allowing 21. The team’s record in this stretch was 2-3 while going 3-2.

The Patriots’ ATS record of 5-11-1 included a 1-4 mark as the favorite and 4-7-1 as the underdog. New England struggled to a 4-13 record, failing to win a single non-conference game (0-5). They were also tough at home, going 1-8 compared to 3-5 on the road. Against the spread, the Patriots were 1-7-1 at home and 4-4 on the road.

When favored, the Patriots went 1-4 straight-up, and as underdogs, they went 3-9. New England went 2-8 against above .500 teams and 2-5 against below .500 teams. Their over/under record was 7-10, and their games averaged 35.4 points per game.

  • Over their last three games, the Bengals have gone 3-0 straight up. Their strong play has also resulted in an ATS mark of 2-0-1 (last 3). They had an over/under mark of 3-0 in those same games.
  • In their last five games at home, the Bengals have a straight up record of 2-3 while going 2-3 vs. the spread. The team averaged 22 points per game in this stretch.
  • Free Spread Prediction Patriots +8.5 (Bet Now)

Patriots vs. Bengals Pick: Patriots +8.5

Our pick vs. the spread in this week one matchup between the Patriots and Bengals is to take the Patriots to cover as road underdogs. Despite the Bengals pulling off the upset by a score of 23-22, the Patriots’ point spread of +8.5 makes them our best bet to cover.

For the over/under line, we like the over with a projected combined score of 45 points. The current O/U line is just 40.5 points, making the over a great value pick in this one.

Similar Posts