Red Sox vs Mets Prediction & MLB Odds For Tuesday, September 3rd
The Red Sox and Mets face off in an interleague matchup at 7:10 PM ET at Citi Field in New York, NY. The Mets are favored on the money line (-127), while the Red Sox have odds of +107. The over/under line is currently 8 runs.
Boston comes in with a record of 70-68 and they are 3rd in the AL East, while the Mets are 3rd in the NL East with an overall record of 74-64. David Peterson is starting for the Mets, and the Red Sox are sending Kutter Crawford to the mound.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Red Sox 1.5 (-201) | Mets -1.5 (+164)
- Total: 8
- MoneyLine: Red Sox +107 | Mets -127
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Red Sox vs. Mets Prediction: Moneyline
New York picked up a 4-1 win over the Red Sox in the most recent game of this series. The Mets had a two-run 4th inning and added two more runs in the 5th, while the Red Sox scored their only run in the 3rd. Heading into the game, the Mets were favored at -115 on the money line.
Luis Severino pitched well for the Mets in this one, going seven innings and giving up just one run. He finished the game with five strikeouts but issued two walks. As for the Red Sox, Brayan Bello got the start and took the loss, going five innings and giving up four earned runs.
Francisco Lindor and Luis Torrens each had two hits and an RBI for the Mets’ offense. Lindor, Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto, and Pete Alonso all scored a run for New York.
Boston is 70-68 overall and trails the Yankees by 10 games in the AL East. The Red Sox have dropped three straight games, and they are 3rd in the AL East standings. So far, they are 18-18 in divisional games. Boston lost the series opener vs. the Mets and is just 3-7 over their last 10 games.
At home, the Red Sox are 31-38 this year, and they have gone 39-30 on the road. As the road underdog, the Red Sox have put together a mark of 24-25 this year. They have struggled as the underdog overall, coming in with a record of 33-37. Boston’s three-game losing streak came as the underdog, and their overall series record is 21-17-6 this year.
The Mets are riding a five-game winning streak, and they are 74-64 overall this season. In the NL East, they are 7.5 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. So far, they have gone 22-17 in divisional games. New York took over the 3rd spot in the NL East and are 7.0 games ahead of the Braves.
At home, the Mets are 36-33 this season, and they have gone 38-31 on the road. New York has won two straight at home, and they are 29-22 as the home favorite. As the favorite overall, the Mets are 47-35 this year. They have an overall series record of 23-16-8 and have won two straight series.
Red Sox vs. Mets Prediction: Over/Under
The Boston Red Sox are on the road today against the New York Mets with an over/under line of 8 runs. The combined run average for Red Sox games this season is 9.5 runs, and their over/under record is 70-61. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, their record is 12-8-3. Overall, 68.8% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 8 runs, and their current under streak is at 3 games.
For the season, the Red Sox are averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 9th in the league. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.1 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .256, which is the 5th best mark in the league, and are also near the top of the league in slugging percentage and OPS. One of the reasons for their offensive success has been their ability to limit strikeouts, as they have the 28th fewest strikeouts in the league.
Jarren Duran has been swinging a hot bat of late, batting .375 over his last eight games, with three homers during that stretch. Duran is also on a four-game hitting streak. For the season, he is batting .294 and is 2nd on the team with 71 RBIs. Rafael Devers has been the team’s top power threat, with 28 homers and 80 RBIs, both of which are the best marks on the team.
The Mets are 14-7 in games with an over/under line of 8 runs this season, and their games have averaged 9.2 runs per game. The over/under record for the Mets this season is 68-66. The over/under line for today’s game against the Red Sox is set at 8 runs. The Mets have played 77 games this season with an over/under line set at 8 runs or higher, which accounts for 55.8% of their games. They have played 40 games with an over/under line set at 7.5 runs or lower, which accounts for 29.0% of their games. The under has hit in each of the Mets’ last five games.
Francisco Lindor has been on a tear for the Mets, as he is batting .304 over his last six games with two homers. For the season, he is hitting .271 with 29 homers and a team-high 81 RBIs. Pete Alonso also has over 30 homers, but he has struggled of late, going just 3/23 in his last six games.
As a team, the Mets are 6th in home runs and are averaging 4.7 runs per game. This is a team that has been better on the road this season, averaging 4.9 runs per game. Overall, they are batting .249, which is 10th in the league.
Red Sox vs. Mets Prediction: Spread
The Red Sox have been a solid run line bet on the road this season, going 40-29, but they have lost two straight run line decisions. They have been a run line underdog in 70 games this season and have gone 40-30 in those contests. Their average run differential in games they have won is +3.9 runs, while their average run differential in losses is -3.9 runs.
Boston is sending right-hander Kutter Crawford to the mound today as he faces the Mets on the road. Crawford has made 28 starts this season and has a record of 8-12 with an ERA of 4.12. So far, he has turned in 12 quality starts and is averaging 8.19 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, Crawford gave up two earned runs in 6 2/3 innings of work, taking the loss. Before that, he had lost three straight starts. Crawford’s ERA on the road is 4.64, compared to 4.12 at home.
When the Mets are favored, they are just 35-47 on the run line, but they are 33-23 when they are the underdog. They are 29-40 on the run line at home and 39-30 on the run line on the road. Their average run differential is +0.3 runs per game, and they have a run line win streak of four games.
Left-hander David Peterson gets the start for the Mets today as he faces the Red Sox at home. He has made 16 starts this year and has a record of 8-1 with an ERA of 2.83. Peterson’s WHIP for the season is 1.32. So far, he has turned in nine quality starts and is coming off an outing in which he gave up two earned runs in seven innings of work. In that outing, he finished with a no-decision. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Opponents are batting .233 off Peterson this season.
Red Sox vs. Mets Pick: Red Sox ML +107
With the Red Sox at +107 on the money line, that is the way we recommend playing this one. We have the Red Sox taking this game 6-5, and with the payout, we see a lot of value in taking them to win outright.
Looking at some potential player props, Kutter Crawford is projected to finish with six strikeouts. As for David Peterson, he is projected to finish with seven, and we have him finishing with a win today.