Ferrari’s Upgraded Floor, Grid Penalties, Weather, and a Potential Mercedes win? – Betting News for the Formula 1 French Grand Prix

With free practice 1 merely hours away from starting (as of publication), we’re going to detail some last-minute news that is, will be, or should affect the betting odds for the Formula 1 French Grand Prix. Ferrari is taking the central focus of the news influencing betting odds, while Mercedes’ confidence – and a helping of media hype – have people looking to the silver arrows as their betting choice in the Grand Prix.

Formula 1’s French Grand Prix takes place at Circuit Paul Ricard, in Le Castellet, France, from July 22-24. One lap around Paul Ricard’s Grand Prix circuit configuration has 15 turns over 3.63 miles (5.842 km), with the Grand Prix totaling 192.393 miles (309.626 km) over 53 laps.

Ferrari’s Upgraded Floor

Ferrari is debuting a new floor design during the French Grand Prix weekend. This upgraded floor was spotted being installed on Charles Leclerc’s Ferrari F1-75. Ferrari is hopeful that the upgraded floor will prove as successful and provide a similar positive impact on performance as the low drag rear wing they introduced during the Canadian Grand Prix weekend.

Leclerc’s pace with the new floor over the three free practice sessions might affect betting odds. Not solely Leclerc’s betting odds, but most significantly the rest of the grid’s betting odds. If Ferrari’s wind tunnel testing proves right, betting odds will change as people bet on Leclerc to win, opening potential opportunities for better betting value on the rest of F1’s front-running teams. However, Ferrari’s reliability woes will always be lurking in the background and should illicit concern from the Scuderia, their fans, and the betting public.

Sainz’s Potential Grid Penalty

Ferrari power units have suffered with reliability across the grid, throughout the 2022 Formula 1 Season. Be it turbocharger failures or internal combustion engine explosions, Ferrari power units have been fragile all season. This fragility has impacted Carlos Sainz’s betting odds for the French Grand Prix, but not in qualifying.

Throughout my coverage of the 2022 Formula 1 season, Sainz has always been within the top 5 of betting favorites to qualify first and win the race. It appears likely that Sainz will be taking his fourth power unit of the 2022 season and will be taking a grid penalty as a result of the Ferrari power unit’s fragility. This impending penalty has Sainz sliding down the betting odds order for Sunday’s Grand Prix.

However, grid penalties do not affect qualifying and they haven’t affected Sainz’s betting odds to qualify first: as of publication, Sainz is ranked fourth, behind driver World Championship contender Charles Leclerc (Ferrari), Championship leader Max Verstappen (Red Bull), and, surprisingly, Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes).

Is Mercedes really closer to the Front of the Grid?

Considering Hamilton’s shifting odds, the betting public certainly believes in Mercedes’ optimism for the French Grand Prix. Mercedes and Formula 1 media have been touting Mercedes’ potential at Circuit Paul Ricard for weeks. But the question remains: Are Mercedes really closer the competing at the front of the grid?

Aside from Russell’s stated optimism for Mercedes’ improved performance to the media on Thursday, it’s recent history that has F1 media buzzing over Mercedes’ chances. Circuit Paul Ricard’s smooth surface shares certain characteristics with Silverstone and Catalunya, two tracks where Mercedes has been exceptionally strong in 2022. It’s these characteristics paired with Mercedes’ optimism, that has the betting population and F1 media jumping on the Mercedes hype train for the French Grand Prix.

One Final Factor: Europe’s Heat Wave

There is one factor that will have a significant impact on this weekend’s French Grand Prix: the current European Heat Wave.

Because of the European heat wave, track temperatures will undoubtedly be high and have consequences on tire degradation. Managing the car’s temperatures, and keeping them cool, and in a proper working window will be the challenge of the weekend for every team on the grid. Before making any picks for the Formula 1 French Grand Prix, you have to factor in the current heat wave.

One team that’s confident in their car’s performance in hot conditions: Mercedes.

The Formula 1 French Grand Prix takes place from Circuit Paul Ricard, in Le Castellet, France, from July 22 to July 24th.